A Correspondence Principle for Simultaneous Equation Models
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联立方程模型的对应原理
- 研究问题
- 当真实因果反应存在短暂滞后，而观测是较长区间内的平均或总量时，联立方程中的即时关系应如何理解？题名提出对应原理问题。
- 方法与思路
- 所给摘要把联立关系视为快速滞后反应的近似，并将讨论重点从离散时点观测转向区间平均或求和所形成的时间聚合。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要强调，常见数据是区间平均或总量，因此仅以离散时点观测解释同时性可能不充分；对应原理的正式结论尚未展示。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对对应原理连接哪些动态与联立模型、时间聚合的具体映射，以及滞后趋小的极限条件、参数解释与估计后果。
- 阅读边界
- 所给文字像引言片段，未给出对应关系、定理条件或估计结果；不能仅因反应滞后很短，就断定聚合后的联立模型近似有效。
原文摘要
Simultaneity as a LimitA well-known and highly convincing position on the nature of simultaneity in econometric models is that such models are only approximations to the true state of affairs.In fact, causation takes time, and the reactions given by the equations of the model truly occur not instantaneously but with a very small time lag.Unfortunately, however, data do not come to us sufficiently finely divided in time to allow us to observe such fastmoving reactions, so we take simultaneous instantaneously-holding relations as approximations, valid between the observations which nature allows us.Time lags are thus considered negligible provided they are sufficiently small.The consequences of this position for parameter estimation when observations occur at discrete points of time separated by an interval much larger than that in which the true reactions take place have been discussed 2 in the literature.In fact, however, this particular variant of the above view does not seem a very realistic one, We very seldom have observations on the value of a particular variable at precise discrete moments in time, 3 and, if we do, we seldom use the observations in that form.Much more common is the case in which the observations either by necessity or by choice are in the form of averages or sums over a non-zero time interval.Simultaneous This view has been discussed at length by Bentzel and Hansen [2].The basic position on causation has been vigorously maintained by H. Wold in several works, e.g., Wold and Jureen [11]. 2 Strotz [10]; but see also Gorman [6].