Statistical inference in tensor completion: Optimal uncertainty quantification and statistical-to-computational gaps
张量补全中的统计推断:最优不确定性量化与统计计算差距AI 解读 ↓
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This paper presents a simple yet efficient method for statistical inference of tensor linear forms using incomplete and noisy observations. Under the Tucker low-rank tensor model and the missing-at-random assumption, we utilize an appropriate initial estimate along with a debiasing technique followed by a one-step power iteration to construct an asymptotically normal test statistic. This method is suitable for various statistical inference tasks, including constructing confidence intervals, inference under heteroskedastic and sub-exponential noise, and simultaneous testing. We demonstrate that the estimator achieves the Cramér–Rao lower bound on Riemannian manifolds, indicating its optimality in uncertainty quantification. We comprehensively examine statistical-to-computational gaps and investigate the impact of initialization on the minimal conditions regarding sample sizes and signal-to-noise ratios required for accurate inference. Our findings show that, with independent initialization, statistically optimal sample sizes and signal-to-noise ratios are sufficient for accurate inference. Conversely, if only dependent initialization is available, computationally optimal sample sizes and signal-to-noise ratios still guarantee asymptotic normality without the need for data-splitting. We present the phase transition between computational and statistical limits. Numerical simulation results align with the theoretical findings.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
多层主效应矩阵因子模型
We propose a multilevel main effects matrix factor model (MMEFM) to extract meaningful row and column effects from groups of matrix data. As a generalization of a multilevel matrix factor model, we provide rigorous definitions of MMEFM and identifications, together with iterative algorithms for the estimators of all global and local components in the main effects and common component, including global/local main effects and core ranks, with rates of convergence spelt out. An…
PICPIs:预测区间条件预测区间
A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal prediction in nonparametric uncertainty quantification, standard marginal validity offers limited resolution at the prediction values on which decisions are based, and fully conditional guarantees with respect to the covariates are provably unattainable. We address this gap by introducing a prediction-based conditioning framework…
高维线性模型中基于汇总统计量的遗传力估计的一致性
In Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS), heritability is defined as the fraction of variance of an outcome explained by a large number of genetic predictors in a high-dimensional polygenic linear model. This work studies the asymptotic properties of the most common estimator of heritability from summary statistics called linkage disequilibrium score (LDSC) regression, together with a simpler and closely related estimator called GWAS heritability (GWASH). These estimators…
超越协方差的线性回归:高阶累积量中的潜在斜率谱
Least squares summarizes the joint distribution of a response and regressor through second-order information. When an observed regressor is composed of latent components carrying different relationships with the response, this summary can average over distinct linear effects. We study the additional linear information contained in higher-order mixed cumulants and formalize it through the latent slope spectrum. Ordinary least squares is a variance-weighted barycenter of this…
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…