The validity of instruments revisited
重新审视工具变量的有效性AI 解读 ↓
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重新审视工具变量的有效性AI 解读 ↓
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This paper shows how valid inferences can be made when an instrumental variable does not perfectly satisfy the orthogonality condition. When there is a mild violation of the orthogonality condition, the Anderson and Rubin (1949) test is oversized. In order to correct this problem, the fractionally resampled Anderson–Rubin test is derived by modifying Wu’s (1990) resampling technique. We select half of the sample when resampling and obtain valid but conservative critical values. Simulations show that our technique performs well even with moderate to large violation of exogeneity when there is a finite sample correction for the block size choice.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
存在不依从时阶梯楔形设计的随机化推断:姑息治疗试验应用
While palliative care is increasingly commonly delivered to hospitalized patients with serious illnesses, few studies have estimated its causal effects. Courtright et al. (2016) adopted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized design to assess the effect of palliative care on a patient-centered outcome. The randomized intervention was a nudge to administer palliative care but did not guarantee receipt of palliative care, resulting in noncompliance. A subsequent analysis using…
两样本孟德尔随机化的自适应惩罚与自助平滑推断
Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to estimate causal effects from observational data using summary association statistics. However, horizontal pleiotropy can invalidate standard MR estimators and lead to biased causal inference. Pleiotropy-robust methods have been proposed to address this issue, including regularization-based approaches such as MR-Lasso. However, MR-Lasso may fail to identify invalid instruments…
兼容机器学习的处理效应异质性综合检验
This study proposes a formal, computationally efficient nonparametric omnibus test for treatment-effect heterogeneity that is compatible with a broad class of estimators, including modern machine-learning methods. The test is designed for settings in which identification can rely on high-dimensional controls while heterogeneity is assessed with respect to a low-dimensional subset of covariates. We derive the test statistic's asymptotic null distribution and develop a…
核工具变量回归的一致推断
Instrumental variable regression is a foundational tool for causal analysis across the social and biomedical sciences. Recent advances use kernel methods to estimate nonparametric causal relationships, with general data types, while retaining a simple closed-form expression. Empirical researchers ultimately need reliable inference on causal estimates; however, uniform confidence sets for the method remain unavailable. To fill this gap, we develop valid and sharp confidence…
机器学习分布型工具变量估计中的模型风险
We study model risk in machine-learning estimation of the Distributional Instrumental Variable Local Average Treatment Effect (D-IV-LATE), the distributional IV effect for the subpopulation induced into treatment by the instrument. The contribution is not a new neural causal estimand. We implement a reduced-form orthogonal level-score DML estimator for the covariate-adjusted D-IV-LATE target and use it to ask how much the nuisance learner matters for distributional IV…