Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation
时间聚合下的分数阶单整估计AI 解读 ↓
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时间聚合下的分数阶单整估计AI 解读 ↓
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A result characterizing the effect of temporal aggregation in the frequency domain is known for arbitrary stationary processes and generalized for difference-stationary processes here. Temporal aggregation includes cumulation of flow variables as well as systematic (or skip) sampling of stock variables. Next, the aggregation result is applied to fractionally integrated processes. In particular, it is investigated whether typical frequency domain assumptions made for semiparametric estimation and inference are closed with respect to aggregation. With these findings it is spelled out, which estimators remain valid upon aggregation under which conditions on bandwidth selection.
时变可预测性的稳健推断:Sieve-IVX 方法
Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of…
递归非线性脉冲响应函数的无带宽推断
Recursive nonlinear impulse responses require an estimated innovation law whenever the impact shock is normalized by innovation ranks and future innovations are integrated out. The closest semiparametric recursive construction in the literature estimates the relevant innovation quantile functions smoothly and discusses a direct empirical-residual implementation without developing its complete first-order inference theory. We tackle this gap in a finite-dimensional nonlinear…
分数阶单整的半参数估计:局部 Whittle 方法评估
Fractionally integrated time series, exhibiting long memory with slowly decaying autocorrelations, are frequently encountered in economics, finance, and related fields. Since the seminal work of Robinson (1995), a variety of semiparametric local Whittle estimators have been proposed for estimating the memory parameter $d$, each with a distinct range of validity and different robustness properties, leaving applied researchers to decide which to use and under what conditions.…
非平稳与周期时间序列的函数型半参数建模
Inspired by a real data example illustrating the periodicity in hog price data, this study aims to analyze time series that exhibit an unknown period alongside complex covariate effects. To address these complexities and effectively handle the data structures, we incorporate the partial functional varying-coefficient single-index model into the classical time series decomposition model. We propose a two-stage estimation procedure designed to accurately estimate the unknown…
马尔可夫转换模型中的张量积交互
Markov-switching models are a powerful tool for modelling time series data that are driven by underlying latent states. As such, they are widely used in behavioural ecology, where discrete states can serve as proxies for behavioural modes and enable inference on latent behaviour driving e.g. observed movement. To understand drivers of behavioural changes, it is common to link model parameters to covariates. Over the last decade, nonparametric approaches have gained traction…
未知持续性形式下非线性预测回归的按时间修剪最小二乘
Relatively, recent work by Jeganathan (2008, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1649) and Wang (2014, Econometric Theory , 30(3), 509–535) on generalized martingale central limit theorems (MCLTs) implicitly introduces a new class of instrument arrays that yield (mixed) Gaussian limit theory irrespective of the persistence level in the data. Motivated by these developments, we propose a new semiparametric method for estimation and inference in nonlinear predictive regressions…