Was Stalin Necessary? Counterfactual Evidence on Soviet Growth

原文摘要

This article evaluates whether the exceptionally rapid growth of the Russian and Soviet economy after 1928 requires a specifically Stalinist explanation. The analysis treats this historical question as a sequence of increasingly demanding counterfactual comparisons rather than a binary comparison between observed growth and a single alternative. Long run output series from the Global Macro Database and the Maddison Project are combined with synthetic control, augmented synthetic control, synthetic difference in differences, interactive factor models, matrix completion, prediction benchmarks, historical analogues, spatial and temporal placebos, donor pool perturbations, endpoint sensitivity, and independent Soviet national account reconstructions. A key methodological contribution is a revised New Economic Policy counterfactual. Instead of extrapolating the rapid recovery observed from 1922 to 1928, the analysis models the recovery gap as a bootstrap process anchored to the pre 1914 trend and calibrated using the observed postwar closure of the Russian output gap. The Russian core estimates exceed the median admissible frontier at every endpoint and surpass the main 90th percentile frontier from the mid 1930s onward, whereas the broader Soviet territorial aggregate remains more conservative. Donor perturbations preserve a positive Russian core premium, but the limited placebo sample, imperfect pretreatment fit, recovery related false positives, source dependence, and hostile upper bounds prevent strong claims of historical necessity. The evidence supports a conditional growth premium but does not identify Stalin as the only institutionally feasible path.

摘要来源：arXiv