A recursive algorithm for nonparametric analysis with missing data
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缺失数据非参数分析的递归算法AI 解读 ↓
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The mixture of Dirichlet processes posterior that arises in nonparametric Bayesian analysis has been analysed most effectively using Markov chain Monte Carlo. As a computationally simple alternative, we introduce a recursive approximation based on one-step posterior predictive distributions. Asymptotic calculations provide theoretical support for this approximation, and we investigate its actual behaviour in several numerical examples. From a non-Bayesian perspective, this new recursion may be used to obtain solutions of the self-consistency equations. Keywords:Dirichlet process; Interval censoring; Nonparametric Bayesian analysis; Nonparametric mixture; Nonparametric maximum likelihood; Polya urn; Prior feedback; Quasi-Bayes; Self-consistency; Stochastic approximation; Truncation.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
高维线性回归经验贝叶斯估计的均值场方法
We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and Stephens (2012) and Kim et al. (2022). We establish asymptotic consistency of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and its (computable) naive mean field variational surrogate under mild assumptions on the design and the…
Cox 模型的半参数 Fiducial 推断
Abstract R.A. Fisher introduced the fiducial distribution as a potential replacement for the Bayesian posterior distribution in the 1930s. During the past century, fiducial approaches have been explored in various parametric and nonparametric settings. However, to the best of our knowledge, no fiducial inference has been developed in the realm of semiparametric statistics. In this paper, we propose a novel fiducial approach for semiparametric models. In memory of Sir David…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
贝叶斯非参数准似然
A recent trend in Bayesian research has been revisiting generalizations of the likelihood that enable Bayesian inference without requiring the specification of a data generating mechanism. This article focuses on a Bayesian nonparametric extension of Wedderburn’s quasi-likelihood, using Bayesian additive regression trees to model the mean function. Here, the analyst posits only a structural relationship between the mean and variance of the outcome. We show that this approach…
泊松经验贝叶斯估计:何时先验建模优于边际建模?
Empirical Bayes (EB) is a popular framework for large-scale inference that aims to find data-driven estimators to compete with the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior. Two principled approaches to EB estimation have emerged over the years: f-modeling, which constructs an approximate Bayes rule by estimating the marginal distribution of the data, and g-modeling, which estimates the prior from data and then applies the learned Bayes rule. For the Poisson model, the…