Causal Hangover Effects
球队表现的因果性宿醉效应AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确尝试识别到访夜生活城市对球队次日表现的因果效应，并讨论博彩市场条件下的识别依据，支持因果推断分类。
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球队表现的因果性宿醉效应
- 研究问题
- 球队在夜生活活跃城市比赛后，是否会在二十四小时内的下一场比赛中表现下降，尤其更难达到博彩公司盘口预期？
- 方法与思路
- 作者用前一场比赛城市的夜生活水平代理聚会可能性，以是否赢盘衡量次日表现，并基于有效博彩市场下的非相关条件讨论识别。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，在 NBA 和 MLB 的背靠背比赛样本中，前一天到访夜生活活跃城市与次日达到盘口预期的概率显著下降有关。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对城市夜生活指标、盘口时间与信息集，以及旅行、休息和赛程等因素是否破坏摘要所依赖的非相关识别条件。
- 阅读边界
- 依据 arXiv 预印本摘要，不能确认同行评审或期刊接收；聚会行为未被直接观测，因果解释依赖未经摘要验证的识别条件。
原文摘要
It's not unreasonable to think that in-game sporting performance can be affected partly by what takes place off the court. We can't observe what happens between games directly. Instead, we proxy for the possibility of athletes partying by looking at play following games in party cities. We are interested to see if teams exhibit a decline in performance the day following a game in a city with active nightlife; we call this a "hangover effect". Part of the question is determining a reasonable way to measure levels of nightlife, and correspondingly which cities are notorious for it; we colloquially refer to such cities as "party cities". To carry out this study, we exploit data on bookmaker spreads: the expected score differential between two teams after conditioning on observable performance in past games and expectations about the upcoming game. We expect a team to meet the spread half the time, since this is one of the easiest ways for bookmakers to guarantee a profit. We construct a model which attempts to estimate the causal effect of visiting a "party city" on subsequent day performance as measured by the odds of beating the spread. In particular, we only consider the hangover effect on games played back-to-back within 24 hours of each other. To the extent that odds of beating the spread against next day opponent is uncorrelated with playing in a party city the day before, which should be the case under an efficient betting market, we have identification in our variable of interest. We find that visiting a city with active nightlife the day prior to a game does have a statistically significant negative effect on a team's likelihood of meeting bookmakers' expectations for both NBA and MLB.