The Use of Econometric Models as a Guide to Economic Policy
以计量经济模型指导经济政策AI 解读 ↓
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以计量经济模型指导经济政策
- 研究问题
- 计量模型如何结合历史可观测事实与定性信息，为经济政策提供较少依赖个人判断的分析，并在行为环境变化时支持预测？
- 方法与思路
- 作者主张以历史记录刻画经济行为规律，将可获得的定性信息纳入模型推断，并用假设战争发生后的就业预测说明这一原则。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要提出政策分析中兼用历史行为信息与定性判断的立场，并强调预测依赖过去行为模式的延续；未报告具体估计结果。
- 阅读关注点
- 核对全文如何将定性信息转化为模型调整，政策分析与预测所需的行为稳定条件，以及模型结论对判断和情境变化的依赖。
- 阅读边界
- 摘要主要阐述建模与政策分析原则，未给出具体模型、数据或预测检验；战争例子属于说明，不能据此确认实际预测表现。
原文摘要
IT IS desirable to provide tools of analysis suited for public economic policy that are, as much as possible, independent of the personal judgments of a particular investigator. Econometric models are put forth in this scientific spirit, because these models, if fully developed and properly used, eventually should lead all investigators to the same conclusions, independent of their personal whims. The usual experience in the field of economic policy is that there are about as many types of advice as there are advisors (sometimes even more!). Statistical models of the working of the economy are not proposed as magic formulas which divulge all the secrets of the complex real world in a single equation. The statistical models attempt to provide as much information about future or other unknown phenomena as can be gleaned from the historical records of observable and measurable facts. To the extent to which people maintain their past behavior patterns in the future, the statistical models provide information about the quantitative properties of economic variables in the future. However, econometricians do not operate in a vacuum; their methods are not purely mechanical in the sense that they do nothing but substitute in formulas. Any information of a qualitative nature that is available should be used by the econometrician in drawing inferences about the real world from his models. For example, suppose that an econometrician is called upon to forecast next year's level of employment and suppose further that this econometrician knows that war will break out next year. Would the econometrician merely substitute into his equations of peacetime behavior patterns in order to forecast employment in a period during which there will be war? Obviously, any qualitative information (e.g., the outbreak of war next year) must be taken into account in order to make a proper forecast. The nonstatistical economist has only qualitative information from which to make judgments. The statistical economist has this same qualitative information plus a thorough knowledge of historically developed behavior patterns; hence it may be said that the latter is better equipped.