Bridging the ensemble Kalman and particle filters
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连接集合卡尔曼滤波与粒子滤波AI 解读 ↓
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In many applications of Monte Carlo nonlinear filtering, the propagation step is computationally expensive, and hence the sample size is limited. With small sample sizes, the update step becomes crucial. Particle filtering suffers from the well-known problem of sample degeneracy. Ensemble Kalman filtering avoids this, at the expense of treating non-Gaussian features of the forecast distribution incorrectly. Here we introduce a procedure that makes a continuous transition indexed by γ∈[0,1] between the ensemble and the particle filter update. We propose automatic choices of the parameter γ such that the update stays as close as possible to the particle filter update subject to avoiding degeneracy. In various examples, we show that this procedure leads to updates that are able to handle non-Gaussian features of the forecast sample even in high-dimensional situations.
用循环神经网络预测自回归非因果过程
This paper examines the use of recurrent neural networks and their extensions for forecasting autoregressive causal-noncausal processes, characterized by local explosive patterns such as bubbles and spikes. We study the recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), bidirectional LSTM, and also a simple feed-forward network (FNN) to reveal the difficulty of forecasting extreme values depending on the type of network and…
协整回归变量:折叠凹惩罚何时超越 LASSO
LASSO is one of the most popular regularization methods for high-dimensional regression models. While cointegration is common in practical applications of predictive regressions with many regressors, the convex penalty of LASSO overly suppresses the coefficients of cointegrated regressors and therefore fails to deliver consistent parameter estimation. We employ folded concave penalties (FCP), including the well-known SCAD and MCP, to address this issue. Using FCP, we…
基于正则化对抗重加权的前验知情可泛化低秩表示学习
Modern learning problems increasingly leverage data from heterogeneous sources to improve robustness and generalizability under distribution shift, often with high-dimensional parameters admitting low-rank structure. Existing group distributionally robust optimization (group-DRO) approaches optimize against adverse source mixtures, but extending this principle to low-rank matrix estimation with a broad class of losses leads to a challenging nonconvex-concave problem for…
Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, often limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a "model-free" framework of instance-based learning using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through…
基于深度可分离神经网络的混频时间序列预测
To better forecast mixed-frequency time series, it is the key to choose a suitable way for frequency alignment. However, the existing methods are all limited to linear transformations, and this may overlook the possible nonlinearity, leading to a worse prediction. We alternatively consider a deep neural network for each frequency alignment, and hence a depth-separable neural network. Moreover, a parameter-sharing mechanism is adopted across the alignment at each stage,…
This paper presents a causal decision framework for list-price elasticities in intermediated retail channels, where estimates are confounded by promotions, competitor moves and shopkeeper pass-through. Rather than forcing a number when the evidence is ambiguous, the system treats abstention (Wait) as an active diagnostic output. Built on Double Machine Learning and conformal prediction, it evaluates whether conditions exist to act on a recommended price or whether…