Statistical Inference for High-Dimensional Spectral Density Matrix
高维谱密度矩阵的统计推断AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确以多变量时间序列及其频域谱密度矩阵为研究对象。
高维谱密度矩阵的统计推断AI 解读 ↓
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The spectral density matrix is a fundamental object of interest in time series analysis, and it encodes both contemporary and dynamic linear relationships between component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper we develop novel inference procedures for the spectral density matrix in the high-dimensional setting. Specifically, we introduce a new global testing procedure to test the nullity of the cross-spectral density for a given set of frequencies and across pairs of component indices. For the first time, both Gaussian approximation and parametric bootstrap methodologies are employed to conduct inference for a high-dimensional parameter formulated in the frequency domain, and new technical tools are developed to provide asymptotic guarantees of the size accuracy and power for global testing. We further propose a multiple testing procedure for simultaneously testing the nullity of the cross-spectral density at a given set of frequencies. The method is shown to control the false discovery rate. Both numerical simulations and a real data illustration demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed testing methods.
高维函数型时间序列的同时变点推断
We develop a framework for simultaneous change-point inference of high-dimensional functional time series. The observations are modeled as temporally dependent vectors whose coordinates take values in possibly different separable Hilbert spaces, thereby covering a broad class of functional data. Heterogeneous mean changes may occur at coordinate-specific locations, and the contemporaneous dependence across coordinates is left unrestricted. Our procedure is based on…
时变相关性推断的渐近一致错误发现率控制
Inference for locally stationary time series is challenging because the associated hypotheses form an uncountable collection over a continuous time interval, making pointwise false discovery rate (FDR) control inadequate for simultaneous statistical guarantees. We introduce a novel asymptotically uniform false discovery rate (AuFDR), defined as the expectation of the $L_r$-norm of the false discovery proportion (FDP) process where $r$ is allowed to diverge, to quantify and…
非线性时间序列的同时推断:筛法 M 回归方法
This paper studies simultaneous inference of conditional distributions in nonlinear time series from a sieve M-regression perspective. Existing literature on sieve M-regression has primarily focused on pointwise asymptotics, leaving the development of uncertainty quantification over the entire predictor space unexplored. We address this gap by establishing a uniform Bahadur representation for the sieve M-estimator, accommodating dependent data and a growing number of sieve…
时间序列函数型线性回归的同时推断
We consider the problem of joint simultaneous confidence band (JSCB) construction for regression coefficient functions of time series scalar-on-function linear regression when the regression model is estimated by roughness penalization approach with flexible choices of orthonormal basis functions. A simple and unified multiplier bootstrap methodology is proposed for the JSCB construction which is shown to achieve the correct coverage probability asymptotically. Furthermore,…
长程依赖时间序列协方差矩阵与精度矩阵的同时推断
For time series with long-range temporal dependence, inference for covariance and precision matrices is non-trivial. We propose a Berry-Esseen type Gaussian approximation result that gives a finite-sample bound for the Kolmogorov distance between the infinity norms of the estimation error of sample covariance matrix and the corresponding Gaussian approximation. The method utilizes martingale and m-dependent approximation and relies on constructing triadic blocks. We also…
宏观与金融即时预测中的可解释机器学习:面向商业与政策决策的框架
Macroeconomic nowcasting sits at the intersection of traditional econometrics, data-rich information systems, and AI applications in business, economics, and policy. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to nowcast quarterly GDP growth, but adoption in high-stakes settings requires that predictive accuracy be matched by interpretability and robust uncertainty quantification. This article reviews recent developments in macroeconomic nowcasting and compares…