Identifying an Earnings Process With Dependent Contemporaneous Income Shocks
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This paper proposes a novel approach for identifying coefficients in an earnings dynamics model with arbitrarily dependent contemporaneous income shocks. Traditional methods relying on second moments fail to identify these coefficients, emphasizing the need for nongaussianity assumptions that capture information from higher moments. Our results contribute to the literature on earnings dynamics by allowing models of earnings to have, for example, the permanent income shock of a job change to be linked to the contemporaneous transitory income shock of a relocation bonus.
理性疏忽—加性随机效用模型的估计
This paper develops likelihood-based estimation for parametric rational inattention--additive random utility models. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the exact maximum likelihood estimator and provide conditions under which the simulated estimator shares its asymptotic distribution. To implement estimation, we develop Newton--BA, a KKT-guided hybrid of Newton--Raphson and Blahut--Arimoto (BA). The algorithm accommodates both interior and boundary…
大规模需求估计的贝叶斯机器学习方法
This work studies how Bayesian machine learning methods can be used for large-scale demand estimation with many product categories. I compare two model classes, a latent factorization model and a mixed logit model and two Bayesian estimation approaches, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI). The analysis combines a simulation study with an application to supermarket scanner data. The results show that the latent factorization model benefits from…
集体家庭消费中的规模经济
ABSTRACT Browning et al. (2013) model collective‐household economies of scale in goods consumption by having each good be partly shared, instead of each good being public or private. We modify their model to achieve simple point identification and estimation of the economies of scale of consumption of each good, and we provide a new index of household level economies of scale. Our model has a linear form, permits households of varying composition, including children, and…
玻利维亚犯罪与暴力治理政策组合的路径依赖主体微观模拟
This study develops a survey-calibrated, path-dependent agent-based microsimulation for evaluating crime and violence reduction policies in Bolivia. A synthetic population is constructed from the 2025 Household Survey and the fourth-quarter 2025 Continuous Employment Survey using official expansion weights and cross-survey donor matching. The model combines heterogeneous agents, place-based risk, criminal adaptation, institutional capacity, community organization, and…
扰动效用模型的 Fenchel–Young 估计量
Perturbed Utility Models (PUMs) represent discrete choice as utility maximization under convex perturbation or regularization, encompassing a broad class of choice models, including Multinomial Logit (MNL) and models that permit zero choice probabilities. Because, for general perturbations, maximum likelihood may be non-convex, and the negative log-likelihood is infinite when a sparse model assigns zero probability to an observed choice, we specialize the Fenchel--Young…
熵正则化最优传输下的部分识别
In many statistical settings, the available data and maintained assumptions do not suffice to uniquely identify the model parameters of interest. In such cases, one can only identify sets which are guaranteed to contain the true parameters. These are often characterized through linear programs that optimize over models compatible with the observed data. These programs can be infinite-dimensional in the optimizer and the number of constraints. We provide a unified way to…