eCDANs: Efficient Temporal Causal Discovery from Autocorrelated and Non-stationary Data (Student Abstract)
eCDANs:从自相关与非平稳数据中高效发现时序因果关系(学生摘要)AI 解读 ↓
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eCDANs:从自相关与非平稳数据中高效发现时序因果关系(学生摘要)AI 解读 ↓
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Conventional temporal causal discovery (CD) methods suffer from high dimensionality, fail to identify lagged causal relationships, and often ignore dynamics in relations. In this study, we present a novel constraint-based CD approach for autocorrelated and non-stationary time series data (eCDANs) capable of detecting lagged and contemporaneous causal relationships along with temporal changes. eCDANs addresses high dimensionality by optimizing the conditioning sets while conducting conditional independence (CI) tests and identifies the changes in causal relations by introducing a surrogate variable to represent time dependency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that eCDANs can identify time influence and outperform the baselines.
伪增量检验:利用自然发生的干预衡量广告增量效应
We develop a method for measuring the incremental effect of advertising when randomized exper- iments are unavailable. Firms generate abrupt interventions in their own marketing as a byproduct of operations: budgets are cut, channels launch, programs pause. We propose a two-stage proce- dure that treats these events as quasi-experiments. The first stage discovers and dates interventions by exact Bayesian run-length inference on marketing activity series. The second stage…
DoTime:干预与反事实时间序列的合成基准生成器
Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce \textbf{DoTime}, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the \code{dotime} PyPI package together…
Causal-TS:高维与非平稳时间序列因果发现的 Python 库
We describe Causal-TS, an open-source Python library for causal discovery in high-dimensional and nonstationary multivariate time series. Causal-TS provides four specialized algorithms-CDNOTS, CDNOTS+, CEDAR, and GRACE-along with wrappers for GES, Granger, LASSO-VAR, and LGES, all sharing a unified conditional independence (CI) test layer with GPU acceleration via PyTorch. A regime discovery pipeline detects structural breaks via pluggable changepoint detectors and runs…
含同期效应与指数族噪声的可识别马尔可夫切换模型
Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of…
不稳定环境下的分位数格兰杰因果关系
We propose a new framework for assessing Granger causality in quantiles in unstable environments, for a fixed quantile or over a continuum of quantile levels. Our proposed test statistics are consistent against fixed alternatives, they have nontrivial power against local alternatives, and they are pivotal in certain important special cases. In addition, we show the validity of a bootstrap procedure when asymptotic distributions depend on nuisance parameters. Monte Carlo…
时序机制区间的因果结构学习
Understanding causal relationships in multivariate time series is essential for predicting and controlling dynamic systems in fields like economics, neuroscience, and climate science. However, existing causal discovery methods often assume stationarity, limiting their effectiveness when time series consist of sequential regimes, consecutive temporal segments with unknown boundaries and changing causal structures. In this work, we firstly introduce a framework to describe and…