A note on profile likelihood for exponential tilt mixture models
指数倾斜混合模型的剖面似然札记AI 解读 ↓
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指数倾斜混合模型的剖面似然札记AI 解读 ↓
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Suppose that independent observations are drawn from multiple distributions, each of which is a mixture of two component distributions such that their log density ratio satisfies a linear model with a slope parameter and an intercept parameter. Inference for such models has been studied using empirical likelihood, and mixed results have been obtained. The profile empirical likelihood of the slope and intercept has an irregularity at the null hypothesis so that the two component distributions are equal. We derive a profile empirical likelihood and maximum likelihood estimator of the slope alone, and obtain the usual asymptotic properties for the estimator and the likelihood ratio statistic regardless of the null. Furthermore, we show the maximum likelihood estimator of the slope and intercept jointly is consistent and asymptotically normal regardless of the null. At the null, the joint maximum likelihood estimator falls along a straight line through the origin with perfect correlation asymptotically to the first order.
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…
线性IV模型中持续更新GMM的多项式方法
This paper characterizes the global minimum of the continuously updating generalized method of moments (CU-GMM) objective in linear instrumental variables models. We allow optimal weighting matrices under heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, or clustering. We show that the objective is a ratio of polynomials. For one endogenous regressor, stationary points of CU-GMM objective function are real eigenvalues of a companion matrix. Comparing their objective values with the value…
利用多分位数稳健检验多变量波动率的结构变化
We propose an omnibus nonparametric test for structural changes in the multivariate volatility matrix. The test aggregates bounded generalized quantile scores over a range of quantile levels and has a weighted leave-$q$-out $U$-statistic representation. Deleting nearby index pairs renders the centering effect induced by serial dependence asymptotically negligible. All quantities required for implementation, including the variance estimator used for standardization, are…
无矩条件下的非对称 GARCH 建模
Heavy tails and stability are two persistent challenges in modelling financial time series, yet most existing approaches rely on finite-moment assumptions and pay insufficient attention to stability issues. To bridge this gap, we propose an asymmetric GARCH model with standardized non-Gaussian stable innovations (sAGARCH), which accommodates infinite variance and even infinite mean. We establish a comprehensive inference framework for both stationary and explosive cases,…
可扩展 ARMA 模型的拟极大似然估计
The recently proposed scalable ARMA model preserves the parsimony of traditional VARMA models while achieving greater computational tractability. However, existing studies are limited to regularized least squares estimation (LSE) for high-dimensional settings, which is not only statistically less efficient but also requires the sub-Gaussian assumption for its theoretical guarantees. Moreover, it still lacks inference tool for real applications. To fill this gap, we develop a…
准贝叶斯局部投影:同时推断及工具变量扩展
Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated posteriors. We propose a quasi-Bayesian method based on the Laplace-type estimator, where a quasi-likelihood is constructed using a generalized method of moments criterion. This approach avoids strict distributional assumptions, ensures…