NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION OF THE MIXED HAZARDS MODEL WITH TIME-VARYING COVARIATES
含时变协变量的混合风险率模型的非参数识别AI 解读 ↓
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含时变协变量的混合风险率模型的非参数识别AI 解读 ↓
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Most nonparametric identification results for the mixed proportional hazards model for single spell duration data depend crucially on the proportional hazards assumption. Here, it is shown that variation in covariates over time, combined with variation across observations, is sufficient to ensure identification without the proportional hazards assumption. The required variation over time is minimal, and the mixed hazards model is identified without the proportional hazards assumption in the presence of standard time-varying covariates.Thanks to Kåre Bævre, Zhiyang Jia, Tore Schweder, Rolf Aaberge, and John K. Dagsvik for useful comments.
平均处理效应局部化:合成控制中的投影方法
Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this article, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…
动态选择下的因果推断:时变协变量与潜在异质性
I study dynamic treatment effects in panel data under staggered adoption when treatment timing depends jointly on unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and time-varying pretreatment covariates, including lagged outcomes. Untreated potential outcomes follow a nonparametric dynamic panel model that allows flexible interactions between time-varying covariates and latent heterogeneity. I use pretreatment outcome histories to find individuals with similar time-invariant latent…
平均处理效应的局部化:合成控制中的投影方法
Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this paper, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…
SCAN:通过自适应非参数推断依次检测变点
Modern time series are often long, serially dependent, and non-stationary. Existing change-point methods either target specific changes or become computationally intensive when using nonparametric costs on long series. Many also require thresholds to be carefully calibrated under serial dependence. We introduce SCAN, an offline method for detecting multiple distributional change-points in long, serially dependent univariate time series. SCAN compares adjacent windows using…
翻转干预下的纵向加权与修剪处理效应
Weighting and trimming are popular methods for addressing positivity violations in causal inference. While well-studied with single-timepoint data, standard methods do not easily generalize to longitudinal data and remain vulnerable to time-varying positivity violations. We extend weighting and trimming to longitudinal settings via stochastic “flip” interventions, which maintain the treatment status of subjects who would have received the target treatment, and flip others’…
共同基金 alpha 的异质可预测性:稀疏聚类 GMM 方法
Mutual fund managers' skills, measured by risk-adjusted alphas, are predictable using fund characteristics identified by machine learning (e.g., Kaniel et al., 2023, JFE; DeMiguel et al., 2023, JFE). However, alpha's predictive power varies across funds and periods, with most funds exhibiting negligible alphas. To model this heterogeneous predictability, this paper introduces Sparse Clustering GMM, a nonparametric approach for uncovering latent fund groups. SCGMM clusters…