Estimating the social return to higher education: evidence from longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data
估计高等教育的社会回报：来自纵向与重复横截面数据的证据AI 解读 ↓
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估计高等教育的社会回报：来自纵向与重复横截面数据的证据
- 研究问题
- 城市劳动力中大学毕业生占比提高，是否会在个人教育回报之外提高其他劳动者的工资？摘要研究高等教育溢出，并关注能力差异、劳动者跨城市选择及城市冲击如何混淆这一关系。
- 方法与思路
- 摘要利用 NLSY 纵向数据处理劳动者非随机城市选择、未观测能力差异及城市技能回报差异。随后用人口普查数据，以滞后城市人口结构和赠地学院存在作为工具变量，处理潜在城市冲击偏误。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 该版本摘要报告，大学毕业生供给占比增加一个百分点，高中辍学者、高中毕业者与大学毕业者工资分别提高 1.9%、1.6% 和 0.4%。两类数据结果一致，大学毕业者也受益的结果与包含溢出的模型相符。
- 阅读关注点
- 重点核对纵向模型如何处理城市选择及技能回报差异，两项工具变量为何影响大学毕业生占比且不直接影响工资。还应检查城市冲击控制、组别效应和供需解释，判断哪些证据支持溢出机制。 阅读前先备知识：建议先掌握教育的私人回报与社会回报、人力资本外部性、劳动供需和工资决定。固定效应、非随机选择、工具变量相关性与排除限制也是关键背景，用于理解个人构成与城市冲击带来的混淆。
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原文摘要
Economists have speculated for at least a century that the social return to education may exceed the private return. In this paper, I estimate spillovers from college education by comparing wages for otherwise similar individuals who work in cities with different shares of college graduates in the labor force. OLS estimates show a large positive relationship between the share of college graduates in a city and individual wages, over and above the private return to education. A key issue in this comparison is the presence of unobservable individual characteristics, such as ability, that may raise wages and be correlated with college share. I use a confidential version of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to estimate a model of non-random selection of workers among cities. By observing the same individual over time, I can control for differences in unobserved ability across individuals and differences in the return to skills across cities. I then investigate the hypothesis that the correlation between college share and wages is due to unobservable city-specific shocks that may raise wages and attract more highly educated workers to different cities. To control for this source of potential bias, I turn to Census data and use two instrumental variables: the lagged city demographic structure and the presence of a land--grant college. The results from Census data are remarkably consistent with those based on the NLSY sample. A percentage point increase in the supply of college graduates raises high school drop-outs' wages by 1.9%, high school graduates' wages by 1.6%, and college graduates wages by 0.4%. The effect is larger for less educated groups, as predicted by a conventional demand and supply model. But even for college graduates, an increase in the supply of college graduates increases wages, as predicted by a model that includes conventional demand and supply factors as well as spillovers.