Poisson/gamma random field models for spatial statistics
空间统计中的泊松/伽马随机场模型AI 解读 ↓
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空间统计中的泊松/伽马随机场模型AI 解读 ↓
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Doubly stochastic Bayesian hierarchical models are introduced to account for uncertainty and spatial variation in the underlying intensity measure for point process models. Inhomogeneous gamma process random fields and, more generally, Markov random fields with infinitely divisible distributions are used to construct positively autocorrelated intensity measures for spatial Poisson point processes; these in turn are used to model the number and location of individual events. A data augmentation scheme and Markov chain Monte Carlo numerical methods are employed to generate samples from Bayesian posterior and predictive distributions. The methods are developed in both continuous and discrete settings, and are applied to a problem in forest ecology.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
离散空间随机场的有向图模型混合
Current approaches for modeling discrete-valued outcomes associated with spatially-dependent areal units incur computational and theoretical challenges, especially in the Bayesian setting when full posterior inference is desired. As an alternative, we propose a novel statistical modeling framework for this data setting, namely a mixture of directed graphical models (MDGMs). The components of the mixture, directed graphical models, can be represented by directed acyclic…
一般随机块模型中谱初始化变分 EM 的最优社区恢复
We prove a Chernoff-exponent guarantee for the output of spectrally initialized batch variational EM after a prescribed iteration budget, without assuming global maximization of its variational objective. The iteration repeatedly estimates the entire block probability matrix and community proportions from the same sparse graph. We consider a fixed number of communities with proportions bounded away from zero and fixed, positive, distinct connectivity profiles; neither…
玻利维亚犯罪与暴力治理政策组合的路径依赖主体微观模拟
This study develops a survey-calibrated, path-dependent agent-based microsimulation for evaluating crime and violence reduction policies in Bolivia. A synthetic population is constructed from the 2025 Household Survey and the fourth-quarter 2025 Continuous Employment Survey using official expansion weights and cross-survey donor matching. The model combines heterogeneous agents, place-based risk, criminal adaptation, institutional capacity, community organization, and…
面向高维数据的残差树高斯过程建模框架
With the advance of measurement technologies and increasing computing power, large spatial data with heterogeneous structures are often collected over high-dimensional domains. Existing Gaussian process (GP) models and computational strategies are often inadequate for analyzing such datasets in multi-dimensional domains. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian residual tree GP methodology called ResTGP for large spatial data with potentially heterogeneous…
基于预测生成树方法的贝叶斯空间区域划分一致估计
Bayesian model-based spatial clustering methods are widely used for their flexibility in estimating latent clusters with an unknown number of clusters while accounting for spatial proximity. Many existing methods are designed for clustering finite spatial units, limiting their ability to make predictions or may impose restrictive geometric constraints on the shapes of subregions. Furthermore, the posterior clustering consistency theory of spatial clustering models remains…