Frequency Selection in Bayesian Spectral Modeling of Time Series Data with Applications to Wearable Device Measurements
时间序列贝叶斯谱建模中的频率选择及可穿戴设备应用AI 解读 ↓
本页整理公开书目信息,不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成,未完成全文核验,可能有误;具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本,未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要;缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
本页为预印本版本;arXiv 收录、作者填写的期刊信息以及作者既有发表经历,都不单独证明本篇已接收。作者发表记录按 OpenAlex 身份与完整姓名、本站覆盖期刊 ISSN 及正式卷期核对,只展示已核实例,档案仍可能误合并。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录,不合计多个记录;关联记录可能包含正式发表版本,不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零,引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配,同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列,再参考通用方法与发表日期。
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确研究时间序列谱分析、频率选择和多变量节律,按时间序列方法分类,具体应用为可穿戴健康数据。
时间序列贝叶斯谱建模中的频率选择及可穿戴设备应用AI 解读 ↓
正在核对关联版本…
正在核对对应版本的资源…
This paper introduces a Bayesian spike-and-slab framework for spectral analysis of time series data. The proposed method combines frequency selection and dimensionality reduction with a refined grid of candidate frequencies, enabling high-resolution recovery of oscillatory components while promoting sparsity through a structured spike-and-slab prior. A stochastic search algorithm efficiently explores the posterior space, yielding posterior inclusion probabilities that quantify the relevance of each frequency. We extend the framework to multivariate signals via a hierarchical prior on frequency inclusion patterns, allowing the model to capture both shared and component-specific rhythms across multiple time series. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the method's robustness and superior performance in frequency estimation and spectral power reconstruction compared to existing approaches. Applied to actigraphy data from individuals with partial-onset seizures, the univariate model identifies clinically relevant circadian and ultradian rhythms. In a second application, for the joint analysis of physical activity and skin temperature from a healthy individual, the multivariate model reveals partially overlapping rhythmic components consistent with known physiological coupling. This work establishes a powerful and interpretable approach to spectral analysis, with broad applicability to wearable data, chronobiology, and personalized health monitoring.
伪增量检验:利用自然发生的干预衡量广告增量效应
We develop a method for measuring the incremental effect of advertising when randomized exper- iments are unavailable. Firms generate abrupt interventions in their own marketing as a byproduct of operations: budgets are cut, channels launch, programs pause. We propose a two-stage proce- dure that treats these events as quasi-experiments. The first stage discovers and dates interventions by exact Bayesian run-length inference on marketing activity series. The second stage…
用于因果推断与模型发现的连续时间集合 Kalman–Bucy 平滑器
Data assimilation (DA) integrates observational information with model predictions to improve state estimation in complex systems. While filtering provides the basis for online forecasts by using only past and present observations, it can exhibit delays and biases when the underlying dynamics evolve rapidly or undergo regime transitions. Smoothing, which additionally incorporates future observations, provides a natural pipeline for hindcasting and reanalysis that yields an…
让时间提供信息:中断时间序列的识别与高斯过程估计
We study causal inference in interrupted time series designs where a treatment affects every unit simultaneously, so that the contemporaneous controls used by difference-in-differences and synthetic control are unavailable and the counterfactual must be extrapolated from a unit's own pre-treatment history. We establish identification within the potential outcomes framework and estimate the counterfactual by Gaussian process regression. Rather than committing to a single…
可扩展的 VARMA 模型估计
Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified only up to equivalence, and every evaluation costs a pass over the entire series. Yet their moving-average term captures with a few parameters what a pure autoregression matches only with many lags. We introduce an estimation framework that removes this computational barrier: each optimization…
Summary The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when the number of treated units is small. It relies on the stable unit treatment value assumption, ruling out spillover effects. However, interventions often affect not only treated but also untreated units. This study proposes a novel panel data method that extends the standard SCM to account for spillovers and estimate both treatment and spillover effects. The…
Barron–Wiener–Laguerre 模型
We propose a probabilistic extension of Wiener-Laguerre models for causal operator learning. Classical Wiener-Laguerre models parameterize stable linear dynamics using orthonormal Laguerre bases and apply a static nonlinear map to the resulting features. While structurally efficient and interpretable, they provide only deterministic point estimates. We reinterpret the nonlinear component through the lens of Barron function approximation, viewing two-layer networks, random…