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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确围绕工具变量识别、潜在依从人群的处理效应和可推广性检验展开,属于因果推断,未提供其他细分方向的直接依据。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Rui Wang
Ying-Qi Zhao
Oliver Dukes
Bo Zhang

嵌套工具变量分析:转换者平均处理效应及可推广性

研究问题
研究存在不同版本工具变量且依从率不同的情形,如何识别始终依从者与转换者的处理效应,并检验工具变量效应的可推广性。
方法与思路
作者提出嵌套工具变量假设,在非参数模型中推导转换者平均处理效应的有效影响函数和估计量,并构建可使用机器学习的检验。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称识别两类潜在人群的平均效应,提出有效估计及可推广性检验,并在 PLCO 癌症筛查试验中分析结直肠癌筛查效应。
阅读关注点
应核对嵌套假设与通常工具变量条件的关系、潜在人群定义、可推广性检验的原假设,以及机器学习干扰参数估计所需条件。
阅读边界
这是 arXiv 预印本,同行评审或接收未核实;摘要未给出完整假设与实证结果,对可推广性的检验不能自动证明总体效应相同。

原文摘要

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist multiple versions of an IV, for instance, different nudges to take the same treatment in different study sites in a multicenter clinical trial. These different versions of an IV may result in different compliance rates and offer a unique opportunity to study IV estimates' generalizability. In this article, we introduce a novel nested IV assumption and study identification of the average treatment effect among two latent subgroups: always-compliers and switchers, who are defined based on the joint potential treatment received under two versions of a binary IV. We derive the efficient influence function for the SWitcher Average Treatment Effect (SWATE) under a nonparametric model and propose efficient estimators. We then propose formal statistical tests of the generalizability of IV estimates under the nested IV framework. The proposed tests are flexible nonparametric generalizations of classical overidentification tests that allow estimating nuisance parameters using machine learning tools. We apply the proposed method to the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and study the causal effect of colorectal cancer screening and its generalizability.

笔记与分组