Bayesian Full Information Analysis of Simultaneous Equations
联立方程的贝叶斯全信息分析AI 解读 ↓
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联立方程的贝叶斯全信息分析AI 解读 ↓
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The paper reviews and extends a Bayesian full information analysis of the simultaneous equations model, based upon an extended natural conjugate prior density. The extended prior density belongs to a closed family and is compatible with the independent specification for each equation of a marginal prior density in the multivariate Student form. The paper establishes properties of the resulting posterior density, of some conditional and marginal densities, and of the posterior densities in the special case of seemingly unrelated regression equations.
大规模需求估计的贝叶斯机器学习方法
This work studies how Bayesian machine learning methods can be used for large-scale demand estimation with many product categories. I compare two model classes, a latent factorization model and a mixed logit model and two Bayesian estimation approaches, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI). The analysis combines a simulation study with an application to supermarket scanner data. The results show that the latent factorization model benefits from…
玻利维亚犯罪与暴力治理政策组合的路径依赖主体微观模拟
This study develops a survey-calibrated, path-dependent agent-based microsimulation for evaluating crime and violence reduction policies in Bolivia. A synthetic population is constructed from the 2025 Household Survey and the fourth-quarter 2025 Continuous Employment Survey using official expansion weights and cross-survey donor matching. The model combines heterogeneous agents, place-based risk, criminal adaptation, institutional capacity, community organization, and…
BGM-IV:面向高维协变量工具变量回归的贝叶斯生成建模
Instrumental-variable (IV) regression enables causal estimation under endogeneity, but modern IV problems often involve nonlinear structural effects and high-dimensional covariates. Existing methods typically operate in observed or generic learned feature spaces, and they often yield point estimates without uncertainty quantification. We introduce BGM-IV, a Bayesian generative modeling approach that performs nonlinear IV regression through posterior inference in a causally…
不完全信息博弈中单调均衡策略的检验
This paper develops a unified framework for testing monotonicity of Bayesian Nash equilibrium strategies in unobserved types in games of incomplete information. We show that, under symmetric independent private types, monotonicity of differentiable equilibrium strategies is equivalent to monotonicity of a quasi-inverse strategy identified from observed actions. This allows the problem to be reformulated as testing a countable set of moment inequalities involving…
内生选择与溢出:政策相关因果效应的贝叶斯推断
This paper develops a new econometric framework to identify and estimate policy-relevant causal effects in contexts with endogenous selection into treatment and spillovers within single large networks or spatial settings. Conventional causal inference methods relying on either unconfoundedness or no-interference assumptions are generally inadequate in these scenarios. We introduce a Spillover Roy model that jointly models endogenous treatment selection and potential outcomes…
加速住宅太阳能系统采用:动态结构模型的政策分析
Problem definition: Solar electricity generation is a strategic component of energy portfolios designed to meet growing demand and reduce carbon emissions. Governments and municipalities encourage household photovoltaic (PV) adoption through upfront rebates and tax credits. Limited budgets require principled, data-driven policies that account for the drivers of adoption and the effects of incentives on adoption rates. Methodology/results: We develop a dynamic structural…