Backfitting tests in generalized structured models
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Summary We introduce bootstrap tests for semiparametric generalized structured models. These can be used for testing different kinds of model specifications like separability, functional forms and homogeneity of effects, or for performing variable selection in a large class of semiparametric models. The test statistics are based on the comparison of non- and semiparametric alternatives in which both the null hypothesis and the alternative are non- or semiparametric. All estimators are obtained by smooth backfitting. Simulation studies show excellent performance of the test procedures.
通过 Riesz 校准最优传输将随机试验效应迁移至现实人群
Randomized trials support causal inference, but differences between trial and target populations can limit the transportability of treatment effects to real-world settings. Many existing approaches model the propensity of trial participation and can therefore be sensitive to model misspecification and weak overlap of the covariate distributions. Optimal Transport (OT) offers a different route by comparing the trial and target populations directly in covariate space. We…
Lasso选择后Cox模型的模型化自助法推断
Inference after variable selection in Cox regression is difficult because simple Wald-type intervals after selection can have poor finite-sample conditional coverage. We study a model-based bootstrap for inference after Cox-Lasso variable selection. The Cox-Lasso is fitted once to the original data to select a set of variables, after which an unpenalized Cox model is fitted using only those variables. Bootstrap samples are generated from a semiparametric plug-in Cox model…
半参数推断的 V 折刀切法:方差、置信区间与同时置信带
For decades, the bootstrap has been a default tool for statistical inference because of its broad applicability and minimal analytic requirements. Although its validity is well understood for smooth parametric estimators, its theoretical properties for many modern semiparametric and machine-learning estimators remain largely unstudied. Nevertheless, bootstrap procedures are often used routinely in such settings, even when their validity is unknown and their computational…
利用替代指标辅助缺失主要结局的高效跨总体分布与分位数处理效应估计
We study target-population distributional and quantile treatment effects when a source study observes treatment and post-treatment surrogates for all source units but observes a long-run primary outcome only for a validation subset, while the target population contributes only baseline covariates. The target estimands are transported counterfactual distribution functions $ψ_a(y)=P(Y^a\le y\mid R=0)$, their quantiles $q_a(τ)$, and the quantile treatment effect $Δ(τ)=q_1(τ)-q_0(τ)$…
半参数后验修正
Abstract We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization, and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional posterior on the whole data-generating distribution, we correct the marginal posterior for each functional of…
时间序列的局部神经网络建模:美国货币政策案例
In this paper, we investigate a semiparametric regression model under the context of treatment effects via a localized neural network (LNN) approach. Due to a vast number of parameters involved, we reduce the number of effective parameters by (i) exploring the use of identification restrictions; and (ii) adopting a variable selection method based on the group-LASSO technique. Subsequently, we derive the corresponding estimation theory and propose a dependent wild bootstrap…