On the uses and abuses of regression models: a call for reform of statistical practice and teaching
回归模型的使用与误用：统计实践和教学改革倡议AI 解读 ↓
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回归模型的使用与误用：统计实践和教学改革倡议
- 研究问题
- 如果回归教学与实践只关注逼近所谓真实数据生成模型，而未先明确研究目的，会如何导致协变量调整和系数解释的误用？
- 方法与思路
- 作者结合历史案例与临床期刊简要回顾，区分描述、预测和因果三类问题，主张依据具体问题决定回归及其他方法的使用。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要提出以研究问题为起点的统计教学与分析框架，指出模型构建、协变量调整和解释方式应随研究目的而改变。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对案例如何界定误用、期刊回顾的范围与筛选方式，以及三类问题分别如何决定目标量、调整变量和结果解释。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审或期刊接收未核实；摘要未给出系统回顾设计或改革成效证据，不能据此量化误用的普遍程度。
原文摘要
Regression methods dominate the practice of biostatistical analysis, but biostatistical training emphasises the details of regression models and methods ahead of the purposes for which such modelling might be useful. More broadly, statistics is widely understood to provide a body of techniques for "modelling data", underpinned by what we describe as the "true model myth": that the task of the statistician/data analyst is to build a model that closely approximates the true data generating process. By way of our own historical examples and a brief review of mainstream clinical research journals, we describe how this perspective has led to a range of problems in the application of regression methods, including misguided "adjustment" for covariates, misinterpretation of regression coefficients and the widespread fitting of regression models without a clear purpose. We then outline a new approach to the teaching and application of biostatistical methods, which situates them within a framework that first requires clear definition of the substantive research question at hand within one of three categories: descriptive, predictive, or causal. Within this approach, the development and application of (multivariable) regression models, as well as other advanced biostatistical methods, should proceed differently according to the type of question. Regression methods will no doubt remain central to statistical practice as they provide a powerful tool for representing variation in a response or outcome variable as a function of "input" variables, but their conceptualisation and usage should follow from the purpose at hand.