Bayesian temporal biclustering with applications to multi-subject neuroscience studies
贝叶斯时间双聚类及其在多受试者神经科学研究中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确对多变量时间序列建模,并估计时变测量划分的变点数量与位置。
贝叶斯时间双聚类及其在多受试者神经科学研究中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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We consider the problem of analyzing multivariate time series collected on multiple subjects, with the goal of identifying groups of subjects exhibiting similar trends in their recorded measurements over time as well as time-varying groups of associated measurements. To this end, we propose a Bayesian model for temporal biclustering featuring nested partitions, where a time-invariant partition of subjects induces a time-varying partition of measurements. Our approach allows for data-driven determination of the number of subject and measurement clusters as well as estimation of the number and location of changepoints in measurement partitions. To efficiently perform model fitting and posterior estimation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we derive a blocked update of measurements' cluster-assignment sequences. We illustrate the performance of our model in two applications to functional magnetic resonance imaging data and to an electroencephalogram dataset. The results indicate that the proposed model can combine information from potentially many subjects to discover a set of interpretable, dynamic patterns. Experiments on simulated data compare the estimation performance of the proposed model against ground-truth values and other statistical methods, showing that it performs well at identifying ground-truth subject and measurement clusters even when no subject or time dependence is present.
We study structural changes in multivariate time series by estimating and comparing stationary graphs of macroeconomic time series before and after an economic crisis, such as the Great Recession. Building on a latent time series framework called Orthogonally-rotated Univariate Time-series (OUT), we propose a shared-parameter framework-the spOUT autoregressive model (spOUTAR)-that jointly models two related multivariate time series and enables coherent Bayesian estimation of…
伪增量检验:利用自然发生的干预衡量广告增量效应
We develop a method for measuring the incremental effect of advertising when randomized exper- iments are unavailable. Firms generate abrupt interventions in their own marketing as a byproduct of operations: budgets are cut, channels launch, programs pause. We propose a two-stage proce- dure that treats these events as quasi-experiments. The first stage discovers and dates interventions by exact Bayesian run-length inference on marketing activity series. The second stage…
比例时间序列的 Beta-GAM 隐 Markov 模型
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the Beta mean is linked to covariates through a generalized additive model (GAM) with spline-based smooth functions, while the Beta precision is state-specific, enabling flexible modeling of both nonlinear covariate effects and regime-dependent…
贝叶斯马尔可夫转换部分降秩回归
Reduced-Rank (RR) regression is a powerful dimensionality reduction technique but it overlooks any possible group configuration among the responses by assuming a low-rank structure on the entire coefficient matrix. Moreover, the temporal change of the relations between predictors and responses in time series induce a possibly time-varying grouping structure in the responses. To address these limitations, a Bayesian Markov-switching partial RR (MS-PRR) model is proposed,…
时变参数的贝叶斯自回归在线变点检测
Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding transitions in financial, economic, social, environmental, and technological contexts. Building upon the Bayesian approach introduced in \cite{c:07}, we devise a new method for online change point detection in the mean of a univariate…
利用近似EM算法估计高维马尔可夫切换VAR模型
Regime shifts in high-dimensional time series arise naturally in many applications, from neuroimaging to finance. This problem has received considerable attention in low-dimensional settings, with both Bayesian and frequentist methods used extensively for parameter estimation. The EM algorithm is a particularly popular strategy for parameter estimation in low-dimensional settings, although the statistical properties of the resulting estimates have not been well understood.…