Likelihood ratio tests with boundary constraints using data-dependent degrees of freedom
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When the null hypothesis constrains parameters to the boundary of the parameter space, the asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic is often a mixture of chi-squared distributions, giving rise to the so-called chi-bar test, where weights can depend on the true unknown parameter and be difficult to calculate. We consider the test that conditions on the observed number of null hypothesis parameters in the interior of the parameter space. This approach uses simple chi-squared thresholds, yields conservative asymptotic Type I error, and is guaranteed to give power improvements over the naive approach of simply ignoring boundary constraints. Simulations validate the theoretical results, illustrate application settings, and find power comparable with but usually less than that of the chi-bar test.
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Factor models for longitudinal data, where policy adoption is unconfounded with respect to a low-dimensional set of latent factor loadings, have become increasingly popular for causal inference. Most existing approaches, however, rely on a causal finite-sample approach or computationally intensive methods, limiting their applicability and external validity. In this paper, we propose a novel method for panel causal inference within a super-population framework, based on…
Normality pre-tests on reduced-form innovations cannot detect whether two or more underlying structural shocks are Gaussian, and hence cannot detect a failure of identification in non-Gaussian SVARs. We propose a bootstrap-based approach that reveals such a failure. Under the null of valid identification and certain regularity conditions, the conditional bootstrap distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the impact matrix is asymptotically normal, so the…
结合 model-X knockoffs 与 p 值的高维线性模型 FDR 控制
We propose a novel multiple testing methodology for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in high-dimensional linear models that integrates model-X knockoff techniques with debiased penalized regression estimators. At the foundation of our methodology, we construct and study two sets of naturally paired high-dimensional test statistics and the associated $p$-values for evaluating the same null hypotheses. The first set is shown to be asymptotically mutually independent,…