Histospline smoothing the Bayesian bootstrap
贝叶斯自助法的直方样条平滑AI 解读 ↓
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贝叶斯自助法的直方样条平滑AI 解读 ↓
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This paper describes a version of the Bayesian bootstrap that assigns random Dirichlet mass uniformly across statistically equivalent blocks. The method requires prior knowledge that the underlying distribution is continuous with known compact support. Under these conditions, the resulting analysis has three advantages over traditional bootstrap competitors. First, it takes account of the probability integral transformation. Secondly, it often enables exact expressions for the bootstrap distributions of common statistical functionals; thus small sample properties are known precisely, in contrast to the usual bootstrap situation. Thirdly, it shows consistent superiority in large-scale simulation experiments that compare the global accuracy of confidence intervals for the mean, median, variance and distribution function. The simulation experiments use a goodnessof-fit test as the basis for comparing the performance of competing bootstrap techniques.
自助集成鞅后验:预测重采样的不确定性校准
Martingale posteriors and related predictive resampling methods replace the likelihood--prior pair used within Bayesian inference with a predictive model for future observations. These methods are simple to implement and increasingly popular due to their computational efficiency, but little is known about their ability to accurately quantify uncertainty. In this work, we study the concentration and calibration properties of the martingale posterior for general functionals,…
时间序列概率重抽样的狄利克雷分位数自助法
This work presents DPQBootstrap, a probabilistic resampling method for time series based on a Dirichlet quantile bootstrap and rank-based temporal reconstruction. The method aims to generate pseudo-series that preserve the main characteristics of the original series, including variability, quantiles, extreme values, and part of its temporal dependence. A simulation study compares DPQBootstrap with the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap implemented in the meboot package across eight…
基于鞅后验的贝叶斯分位数估计与回归
Abstract Quantile estimation and regression within the Bayesian framework is challenging as the choice of likelihood and prior is not obvious. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian nonparametric method for quantile estimation and regression based on the recently introduced martingale posterior (MP) framework. The core idea of the MP is that posterior sampling is equivalent to predictive imputation, which allows us to break free of the stringent likelihood-prior…
结合控制函数的准贝叶斯估计与推断
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve estimators to estimate the control function nonparametrically, followed by Bayesian methods to estimate the structural parameters. This combination leverages the advantages of both frequentist tractability for nonparametric estimation and…
使用控制函数的准贝叶斯估计与推断
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve estimators to estimate the control function nonparametrically, followed by Bayesian methods to estimate the structural parameters. This combination leverages the advantages of both frequentist tractability for nonparametric estimation and…
两阶段极值估计量的推断
We present a simulation-based inference approach for two-stage estimators, focusing on extremum estimators in the second stage. We accommodate a broad range of first-stage estimators, including extremum estimators, high-dimensional estimators, and other types of estimators such as Bayesian estimators. The key contribution of our approach lies in its ability to estimate the asymptotic distribution of two-stage estimators, even when the distributions of both the first- and…