Risk comparison theorems and application to deep learning of diffusion coefficients
风险比较定理及其在扩散系数深度学习中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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风险比较定理及其在扩散系数深度学习中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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We investigate the nonparametric estimation of the diffusion matrix in stochastic differential equations featuring multidimensional, strong mixing covariate processes. We propose a flexible statistical framework based on general function classes that does not require a linear basis representation, rendering our results directly applicable to deep neural network estimators. Our approach employs a two-step estimation procedure: constructing a preliminary nonparametric quasi-likelihood estimator and subsequently regularizing it via a $β$-Hölder class approximation. We establish general risk comparison theorems between empirical and generalization risks for arbitrary estimators without relying on a specific probabilistic structure of the underlying process. In diffusion matrix learning based on $n + 1$ observations over the time interval $[0,T]$, the derived upper bounds capture the intrinsic interplay between the $T$-rate, associated with the mixing behavior of the covariate process, and the intrinsic $n$-rate governing the volatility estimation.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
高维二元响应广义线性模型中的多重检验非线性提升
This paper proposes a nonlinear boosting with multiple testing (BMT) approach to variable selection in high-dimensional generalised linear models with binary responses. At each stage of the BMT procedure, the model is updated by adding only the most significant covariate, conditional on those already selected in previous stages, while taking into account the multiple testing nature of the problem. It is shown that, under the stated conditions, the BMT procedure selects all…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
含向量时间序列协变量的时空矩阵自回归模型
We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time series of non-spatial vectors. The proposed model, Matrix AutoRegression with Auxiliary Covariates (MARAC), contains an autoregressive component for the historical matrix predictors and an additive component that maps the auxiliary vector…
具有自回归扰动的空间回归模型的梯度提升
Researchers in urban and regional studies increasingly deal with spatial data that reflects geographic location and spatial relationships. As a framework for dealing with the unique nature of spatial data, various spatial regression models have been introduced. In this article, a novel model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial regression models with autoregressive disturbances is proposed. Due to the modular nature, the approach provides an alternative estimation…
使用非线性筛方法推断时间序列非参数条件矩限制
This paper studies estimation of and inference on dynamic nonparametric conditional moment restrictions of high dimensional variables for weakly dependent data, where the unknown functions of endogenous variables can be approximated via nonlinear sieves such as neural networks and Gaussian radial bases. The true unknown functions and their sieve approximations are allowed to be in general weighted function spaces with unbounded supports, which is important for time series…