Self-Labeling in Multivariate Causality and Quantification for Adaptive Machine Learning
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Adaptive machine learning (ML) aims to allow ML models to adapt to ever-changing environments with potential concept drift after model deployment. Traditionally, adaptive ML requires a new dataset to be manually labeled to tailor deployed models to altered data distributions. Recently, an interactive causality based self-labeling method was proposed to autonomously associate causally related data streams for domain adaptation, showing promising results compared to traditional feature similarity-based semi-supervised learning. Several unanswered research questions remain, including self-labeling's compatibility with multivariate causality and the quantitative analysis of the auxiliary models used in the self-labeling. The auxiliary models, the interaction time model (ITM) and the effect state detector (ESD), are vital to the success of self-labeling. This paper further develops the self-labeling framework and its theoretical foundations to address these research questions. A framework for the application of self-labeling to multivariate causal graphs is proposed using four basic causal relationships, and the impact of non-ideal ITM and ESD performance is analyzed. A simulated experiment is conducted based on a multivariate causal graph, validating the proposed theory.
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian ensemble model used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees, interpreted as weak learners. In this work, we propose a generalization of the BART model that has two main features: first, it automatically selects the number of decision trees using the given data; second, the model allows clusters of…
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嵌套工具变量分析:转换者平均处理效应及可推广性
Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist…
Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, often limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a "model-free" framework of instance-based learning using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through…
This paper presents a causal decision framework for list-price elasticities in intermediated retail channels, where estimates are confounded by promotions, competitor moves and shopkeeper pass-through. Rather than forcing a number when the evidence is ambiguous, the system treats abstention (Wait) as an active diagnostic output. Built on Double Machine Learning and conformal prediction, it evaluates whether conditions exist to act on a recommended price or whether…