Minimax rate of distribution estimation on unknown submanifolds under adversarial losses
对抗损失下未知子流形上的分布估计极小极大速率AI 解读 ↓
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对抗损失下未知子流形上的分布估计极小极大速率AI 解读 ↓
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Statistical inference from high-dimensional data with low-dimensional structures has recently attracted a lot of attention. In machine learning, deep generative modelling approaches implicitly estimate distributions of complex objects by creating new samples from the underlying distribution, and have achieved great success in generating synthetic realistic-looking images and texts. A key step in these approaches is the extraction of latent features or representations (encoding) that can be used for accurately reconstructing the original data (decoding). In other words, low-dimensional manifold structure is implicitly assumed and utilized in the distribution modelling and estimation. To understand the benefit of low-dimensional manifold structure in generative modelling, we build a general minimax framework for distribution estimation on unknown submanifold under adversarial losses, with suitable smoothness assumptions on the target distribution and the manifold. The established minimax rate elucidates how various problem characteristics, including intrinsic dimensionality of the data and smoothness levels of the target distribution and the manifold, affect the fundamental limit of high-dimensional distribution estimation. To prove the minimax upper bound, we construct an estimator based on a mixture of locally fitted generative models, which is motivated by the partition of unity technique from differential geometry and is necessary to cover cases where the underlying data manifold does not admit a global parametrization. We also propose a data-driven adaptive estimator that is shown to simultaneously attain within a logarithmic factor of the optimal rate over a large collection of distribution classes.
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…
嵌套工具变量分析:转换者平均处理效应及可推广性
Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist…
Traditional machine learning relies on explicit models and domain assumptions, often limiting flexibility and interpretability. We introduce a "model-free" framework of instance-based learning using surprisal (information theoretic uncertainty) to directly analyze and perform inferences from raw data, eliminating distribution modeling, reducing bias, and enabling efficient updates including direct edits and deletion of training data. By quantifying relevance through…
This paper studies debiased machine learning when nuisance parameters appear in indicator functions. An important example is maximized average welfare gain under optimal treatment assignment rules. For asymptotically valid inference for a parameter of interest, the current literature on debiased machine learning relies on Gateaux differentiability of the functions inside moment conditions, which does not hold when nuisance parameters appear in indicator functions. In this…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
聚类稳健的预测辅助推断
Data collection is often costly or logistically demanding, limiting both the questions researchers can pursue and how precisely they can answer them. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) can reduce the amount of data needed for precise parameter estimation by combining labeled data with machine learning predictions. However, ignoring dependence within clusters can produce confidence intervals that cover the true parameter less often than their nominal rate. We introduce…