AGGREGATION OF THE RANDOM COEFFICIENT GLARCH(1,1) PROCESS
随机系数 GLARCH(1,1) 过程的同期聚合AI 解读 ↓
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随机系数 GLARCH(1,1) 过程的同期聚合AI 解读 ↓
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The paper discusses contemporaneous aggregation of the Linear ARCH (LARCH) model as defined in (1), which was introduced in Robinson (1991) and studied in Giraitis, Robinson, and Surgailis (2000) and other works. We show that the limiting aggregate of the (G)eneralized LARCH(1,1) process in (3)–(4) with random Beta distributed coefficient β exhibits long memory. In particular, we prove that squares of the limiting aggregated process have slowly decaying correlations and their partial sums converge to a self-similar process of a new type.
用于随机波动的 GARCH Copula、v 变换与 D-vine 模型
The bivariate copulas that describe the dependencies and partial dependencies of lagged variables in strictly stationary, first-order GARCH-type processes are investigated. It is shown that the copulas of symmetric GARCH processes are jointly symmetric but non-exchangeable, while the copulas of processes with symmetric innovation distributions and asymmetric leverage effects have weaker h-symmetry; copulas with asymmetric innovation distributions have neither form of…
We tackle the issue of producing point, sign, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). We show that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models augmented with factors based on macroeconomic and financial variables yield improvements in point and density forecasting performance, with the largest point-forecast gains emerging at intermediate and longer horizons. In particular, the one-factor BVAR model…
即期相关过程日内变动的非参数检验
The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upwardsloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the intraday horizon. There is notably lower—on average less positive—correlation in the morning than in the afternoon. We develop a nonparametric testing procedure to detect such variation in a correlation process. The test statistic has a known…
基于条件异方差识别日度油价冲击及其不确定性
This paper develops a daily structural VAR for identifying oil price shocks from conditional heteroskedasticity and quantifies the transmission of their timevarying uncertainty. Identification exploits volatility clustering and spillovers in a structural GARCH specification and the complete identified set is derived. We derive covariance impulse response functions and introduce a time-varying forecast error variance decomposition (TV-FEVD) that allows for a decomposition of…
用收缩先验建模动态相关矩阵
Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage…
阈值原理、神经网络联系与计量经济学传承札记
This is mostly a non-technical note, reflecting the author's philosophy and personal views on time series analysis, with references limited to only a few representatives for brevity. The Threshold Principle, formally announced in Tong (1990), modernised time series analysis by introducing a collection of sub-systems to model complex nonlinear dynamics. We explore the conceptual architecture of the Threshold Principle drawing parallels and contrasts with artificial neural…