Revisiting EWMA in High‐Frequency‐Based Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Assessment
高频信息组合优化中重审 EWMA:比较评估AI 解读 ↓
本页整理公开书目信息,不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成,未完成全文核验,可能有误;具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本,未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要;缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录,不合计多个记录;关联记录可能包含正式发表版本,不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零,引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配,同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列,再参考通用方法与发表日期。
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确比较高频多元波动率模型与 EWMA,并以股票组合评估,对应波动率和高频计量。
高频信息组合优化中重审 EWMA:比较评估AI 解读 ↓
正在核对关联版本…
正在核对对应版本的资源…
ABSTRACT This paper compares the statistical and economic performance of state‐of‐the‐art high‐frequency (HF) based multivariate volatility models with a simpler, widely used alternative, the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) filter. Using over two decades of 100 U.S. stock returns (2002–2023), we assess model performance through a Global Minimum Variance portfolio optimization exercise, with and without short‐selling restrictions across multiple forecast horizons. We find that the EWMA model cannot consistently be outperformed by more complex HF‐based volatility models at the daily and weekly forecast horizons, even delivering significant utility gains when including transaction costs due to a favorable balance between turnover and ex‐post portfolio volatility. At the monthly horizon, the EWMA remains competitive against most of its competitors. Our findings hold across alternative specifications, including different estimation window lengths, portfolio sizes and smoothing parameter values, emphasizing the continued relevance of parsimonious volatility specifications, such as the EWMA model, in realistic investment settings.
网络实现 GARCH–Itô 模型:基于高频识别的波动率溢出
We introduce a network realized GARCH-Itô model in which volatility transmission is a dynamic relation among the latent daily integrated volatilities of multiple assets. An unknown directed and signed network is embedded in a continuous-time variance process and appears in the resulting exponential daily recursion. Intraday returns identify integrated volatility and hence the network that governs its propagation. For a fixed network template, feasible estimation based on…
融合多种已实现测度的金融波动率与风险预测
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and limitations, selecting an optimal estimator may introduce challenges. In this thesis, aiming to synthesise the impact of various realised volatility measures on volatility forecasting, we propose an extension of the Realised GARCH model that…
利用混频数据改进密度预测:贝叶斯方法
We construct a modeling framework that allows for the flexible contribution of intraday information to predict the conditional distribution of asset returns. A flexible spline specification is proposed to capture the contribution of intraday returns inside GARCH and stochastic volatility specifications for daily returns. The “focused Bayesian” prediction framework is adopted to allow the intraday contribution to the simpler GARCH specification to be trained according to the…
时间变换扩散模型中已实现方差估计的高效抽样
This paper analyzes the benefits of sampling intraday returns in intrinsic time for the realized variance (RV) estimator. We theoretically show in finite samples that depending on the permitted sampling information, the RV estimator is most efficient under either hitting time sampling that samples whenever the price changes by a pre-determined threshold, or under the new concept of realized business time that samples according to a combination of observed trades and…
动态状态空间 HAR 模型
The Heterogeneous AutoRegressive model for the logs of Realised Volatility (HARL) has established itself as the benchmark specification for modelling and forecasting return volatility, owing to its parsimony and ability to capture the strong persistence typically observed in RV. To address potential concerns such as measurement errors, nonlinearities, and non-spherical residuals, numerous variants of the baseline HARL model have been developed in the literature. This paper…
定制已实现波动率:面向波动率预测的风险度量
Standard realized volatility (RV) measures estimate the latent volatility of an asset price using high frequency data with no reference to how or where the estimate will subsequently be used. This paper presents methods for “tailoring” the estimate of volatility to the application in which it will be used. For example, if the volatility measure will be used in a specific parametric forecasting model, it may be possible to exploit that knowledge to construct a better measure…