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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:材料介绍通用贝叶斯决策理论,管理和政策应用举例不足以支持所列细分领域分类。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Mark J. Schervish
John W. Pratt
Howard Raiffa
Robert Schlaifer

统计决策理论导论

研究问题
如何将统计抽样提供的信息与主观概率、效用和经济得失结合,从而指导不确定性下的决策以及样本量选择?
方法与思路
所给介绍从决策理论基础出发,讨论伯努利、泊松及正态过程中的先验更新、典型决策问题和抽样信息的价值。
材料陈述的贡献
材料将其贡献表述为系统整合统计推断与实际决策,并结合抽样成本讨论最优样本量,同时评述经典统计方法的局限。
阅读关注点
阅读时应核对效用和先验的设定方式、信息价值的计算依据,以及最优抽样决策如何依赖具体成本和终端收益。
阅读边界
材料是版本未注明的索引介绍,内容呈教材性质,不能据此认定为原创方法论文;具体版本、证明和案例细节未说明。

原文摘要

The Bayesian revolution in statistics -- where statistics is integrated with decision making in areas such as management, public policy, engineering, and clinical medicine -- is here to stay. Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory states the case and in a self-contained, comprehensive way shows how the approach is operational and relevant for real-world decision making under uncertainty. Starting with an extensive account of the foundations of decision theory, the authors develop the intertwining concepts of subjective probability and utility. They then systematically and comprehensively examine the Bernoulli, Poisson, and Normal (univariate and multivariate) data generating processes. For each process they consider how prior judgments about the uncertain parameters of the process are modified given the results of statistical sampling, and they investigate typical decision problems in which the main sources of uncertainty are the population parameters. They also discuss the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given sampling costs and the economics of the terminal decision problems. Unlike most introductory texts in statistics, Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory integrates statistical inference with decision making and discusses real-world actions involving economic payoffs and risks. After developing the rationale and demonstrating the power and relevance of the subjective, decision approach, the text also examines and critiques the limitations of the objective, classical approach.

笔记与分组