CausalAlpha: A Real-Time Geopolitical Risk Index from OSINT Channels for Causal Discovery in Financial Markets
CausalAlpha：基于开源情报的实时地缘政治风险指数与金融因果发现AI 解读 ↓
← 返回论文列表与筛选
阅读说明
本页整理公开书目信息，不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成，未完成全文核验，可能有误；具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本，未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要；缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
本页为预印本版本；arXiv 收录、作者填写的期刊信息以及作者既有发表经历，都不单独证明本篇已接收。作者发表记录按 OpenAlex 身份与完整姓名、本站覆盖期刊 ISSN 及正式卷期核对，只展示已核实例，档案仍可能误合并。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录，不合计多个记录；关联记录可能包含正式发表版本，不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零，引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配，同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列，再参考通用方法与发表日期。
分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要构建地缘政治风险监测指标，并明确使用结构 VAR 研究其向金融市场的动态传导。
反馈分类问题
正在核对关联版本…
代码、数据与补充材料
正在核对对应版本的资源…
关注这篇论文的作者
CausalAlpha：基于开源情报的实时地缘政治风险指数与金融因果发现
- 研究问题
- 如何从 Telegram 开源情报频道构建地缘政治风险指标，并研究媒体叙事与金融变量之间的方向关系和动态传导？
- 方法与思路
- 作者用自然语言处理构建分类指标，以 PC 算法和分块自助法比较多个图设定，再用结构 VAR 分析每日金融传导。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要报告部分媒体类别间方向关系较稳健，冲突报道与能源股收益存在特定设定下的方向关系，而每日金融传导总体较弱。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对 PC 算法的识别假设、潜在混杂与时间依赖处理、方向确定依据，以及显著性水平、图设定和 VAR 识别的敏感性。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，不能据此声称已同行评审或期刊接收。摘要未列出因果识别条件，图方向与统计稳健性不足以验证因果传导。
原文摘要
We introduce CausalAlpha, an open-source framework that constructs a high-frequency Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index from Telegram OSINT channels using natural language processing, and applies causal discovery methods to identify the directed causal structure between geopolitical uncertainty and financial market variables. Unlike standard sentiment indices or Granger-causality approaches, CausalAlpha employs the Peter-Clark (PC) algorithm to recover the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of causal dependencies between five category-specific GPR indicators and a set of financial variables spanning commodity prices, equity indices, and credit instruments, estimated across four DAG specifications and three significance levels with 500 block-bootstrap resamples. Two findings emerge as globally robust across all DAG specifications at alpha = 0.10: political instability and energy media coverage independently and causally precede conflict coverage, establishing conflict as the primary causal sink of geopolitical narrative escalation in real-time OSINT channels. At the strictest significance level (alpha = 0.05), conflict coverage causally precedes energy sector equity returns (delta XLE), consistent with geopolitical escalation transmitting to energy markets. A Structural VAR on the core macro panel confirms that dynamic transmission from geopolitical NLP signals to financial market prices is statistically weak at daily frequency, suggesting that geopolitical news signals operate primarily within the media narrative system. The framework is deployed as a production application on Google Cloud Run with automated data collection and index construction, representing a step toward real-time macrofinancial risk monitoring using OSINT.