Optimal Rates of Convergence of Parameter Estimators in the Binary Response Model with Weak Distributional Assumptions
弱分布假设下二元响应模型参数估计的最优收敛速度AI 解读 ↓
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The smoothed maximum score estimator of the coefficient vector of a binary response model is consistent and, after centering and suitable normalization, asymptotically normally distributed under weak assumptions [5]. Its rate of convergence in probability is N − h /(2 h +1) , where h ≥ 2 is an integer whose value depends on the strength of certain smoothness assumptions. This rate of convergence is faster than that of the maximum score estimator of Manski [11,12], which converges at the rate N −1/3 under assumptions that are somewhat weaker than those of the smoothed estimator. In this paper I prove that under the assumptions of smoothed maximum score estimation, N − h /(2 h +1) is the fastest achievable rate of convergence of an estimator of the coefficient vector of a binary response model. Thus, the smoothed maximum score estimator has the fastest possible rate of convergence. The rate of convergence is defined in a minimax sense so as to exclude superefficient estimators.
Under i.i.d. sampling, the maximum score estimator of Manski (1975) converges at the cube-root rate to a non-Gaussian limit. We show that, under multiway dependence and low-level conditions, it is asymptotically normal at a parametric rate in the smallest number of clusters and, when the cluster-level variance is non-degenerate, as fast as regular estimators such as probit. The result rests on a general theory for non-smooth M-estimators, under which a modified bootstrap is…
动态面板多项Logit模型
This paper provides moment conditions for dynamic multinomial logit panel data models with individual specific fixed effects. The moment conditions do not depend on the fixed effects and thus form the basis for generalized method of moments estimation. For a leading case, we provide sufficient conditions under which the moment conditions identify the common parameters, and we illustrate their use in an empirical application to household soft drink purchases. The construction…
理性疏忽—加性随机效用模型的估计
This paper develops likelihood-based estimation for parametric rational inattention--additive random utility models. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the exact maximum likelihood estimator and provide conditions under which the simulated estimator shares its asymptotic distribution. To implement estimation, we develop Newton--BA, a KKT-guided hybrid of Newton--Raphson and Blahut--Arimoto (BA). The algorithm accommodates both interior and boundary…
受限因变量模型中可扩展的似然推断
Limited dependent variable models are central to empirical economics, but likelihood-based inference is infeasible when likelihoods involve high-dimensional integration over latent variables. This paper proposes Stochastically Estimated Gradient Ascent (SEGA), a scalable estimation approach for limited dependent variable models. Using Fisher's identity, SEGA replaces the intractable likelihood score with an unbiased augmented data score evaluated at a single conditional draw…
大规模需求估计的贝叶斯机器学习方法
This work studies how Bayesian machine learning methods can be used for large-scale demand estimation with many product categories. I compare two model classes, a latent factorization model and a mixed logit model and two Bayesian estimation approaches, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI). The analysis combines a simulation study with an application to supermarket scanner data. The results show that the latent factorization model benefits from…
组合取胜:用于分布外预测的模型平均
Travel behaviour modellers have an increasingly diverse set of models at their disposal, ranging from traditional econometric structures to models from mathematical psychology and data-driven approaches from machine learning. A key question arises as to how well these different models perform in forecasting, especially when considering trips of different characteristics from those used in estimation, i.e. out-of-distribution prediction, and whether better predictions can be…