Functional diffusion driven stochastic volatility model
由函数型扩散驱动的随机波动率模型AI 解读 ↓
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由函数型扩散驱动的随机波动率模型AI 解读 ↓
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We propose a stochastic volatility model for time series of curves. It is motivated by dynamics of intraday price curves that exhibit both between days dependence and intraday price evolution. The curves are suitably normalized to stationary in a function space and are functional analogs of point-to-point daily returns. The between curves dependence is modeled by a latent autoregression. The within curves behavior is modeled by a diffusion process. We establish the properties of the model and propose several approaches to its estimation. These approaches are justified by asymptotic arguments that involve an interplay between between the latent autoregression and the intraday diffusions. The asymptotic framework combines the increasing number of daily curves and the refinement of the discrete grid on which each daily curve is observed. Consistency rates for the estimators of the intraday volatility curves are derived as well as the asymptotic normality of the estimators of the latent autoregression. The estimation approaches are further explored and compared by an application to intraday price curves of over seven thousand U.S. stocks and an informative simulation study.
即期相关过程日内变动的非参数检验
The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upwardsloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the intraday horizon. There is notably lower—on average less positive—correlation in the morning than in the afternoon. We develop a nonparametric testing procedure to detect such variation in a correlation process. The test statistic has a known…
已实现相关性的稳健估计:市场贝塔日内波动的新见解
Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of economic time series and complicates correlation measurement at high frequencies. While the quadrant correlation estimator is robust to volatility dynamics, it has low efficiency under Gaussian sampling. We introduce a subsampled quadrant correlation estimator that improves efficiency while retaining robustness and computational simplicity. The estimator is based solely on sign information and involves no smoothing parameter…
纯跳半鞅积分波动率泛函的 Glivenko–Cantelli 定理及加密货币应用
We develop a two-step procedure for estimating integrated volatility functionals, defined through the occupation measure of the latent spot volatility process, when the asset price is a pure-jump semimartingale. In the first step, block-based estimators formed from absolute powers of high-frequency increments uniformly approximate local averages of powers of volatility. In the second step, these estimates are aggregated into an empirical occupation measure. Since price…
网络实现 GARCH–Itô 模型:基于高频识别的波动率溢出
We introduce a network realized GARCH-Itô model in which volatility transmission is a dynamic relation among the latent daily integrated volatilities of multiple assets. An unknown directed and signed network is embedded in a continuous-time variance process and appears in the resulting exponential daily recursion. Intraday returns identify integrated volatility and hence the network that governs its propagation. For a fixed network template, feasible estimation based on…
McKean–Vlasov 模型波动率的拟合优度检验
This paper develops a statistical framework for goodness-of-fit testing of volatility functions in i.i.d. McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations, which model large diffusion systems with distribution-dependent dynamics. Although integrated volatility estimation for classical SDEs is well established, formal model validation and goodness-of-fit testing for McKean-Vlasov systems remain largely unexplored, particularly in settings combining large particle limits with…
资产特异的限价订单微观结构噪声:参数估计与经验证据
The one-sided microstructure noise model for high-frequency quotes from a limit order book is generalized to capture asset-specific noise tail behaviour. Estimation of a noise tail parameter becomes the key step for inference. This is possible based on moments of the high-frequency returns when specifying a parametric noise model. For a Gamma noise distribution, we establish a central limit theorem for 1-dependent observations from the resulting Gamma difference distribution…