Causal Effect Estimation on Restricted Mean Survival Time in Case-Cohort Studies via a Matching Design
病例队列研究中基于匹配设计的限制平均生存时间因果效应估计AI 解读 ↓
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病例队列研究中基于匹配设计的限制平均生存时间因果效应估计AI 解读 ↓
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In large observational studies, the case-cohort design is commonly used to reduce the cost associated with covariate measurement. For survival outcomes, literature has suggested that the restricted mean survival time (RMST) be a more appropriate marginal causal effect measure than the hazard ratio. In this paper, we develop a marginal causal effect estimation method for RMST difference under the stratified case-cohort design. We adjust for measured confounders using an innovative template matching design. Compared with conventional matching designs, template matching allows greater flexibility in the sample sizes of the exposed and unexposed groups. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed causal effect estimators and develop a bootstrap procedure to estimate their variances. By conducting comprehensive simulation studies, we evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, demonstrate the advantage of template matching over conventional matching, and compare between matching on propensity score and matching on covariates. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to estimate the marginal causal effect of serum hs-CRP level on the coronary heart disease-free survival.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
克隆—删失—加权方法的形式化与一致性
Target trial emulation has become a standard framework for causal inference from observational data. Within this paradigm, the clone-censor-weight (CCW) methodology provides a practical way to deal with complex treatment and adherence definitions when treatment regimes are not distinguishable at baseline. Despite its increasing use, the statistical interpretation of CCW remains limited. In this work, we formalize the CCW methodology from a statistical viewpoint based on…
非精确匹配何时能在无需调整的情况下保证平衡与有效推断?
One-to-one matching without replacement is a classical approach to constructing comparable treated and control samples in the design of observational studies. It pairs each treated unit with a distinct control while minimizing a covariate distance objective. With continuous covariates, the matched pairs generally remain inexact, which contributes to bias in downstream analysis. Its key theoretical properties, such as the resulting imbalance between matched pairs and when it…
We study nonparametric inference for a continuous-treatment causal dose-response curve and its first derivative under unmeasured confounding, using treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies. We establish a proximal doubly robust pseudo-outcome whose conditional mean given treatment equals the dose-response curve whenever either bridge function is correctly specified. Their (smoothed) efficient influence function representations lead to cross-fitted local-polynomial estimators…
以模型平均替代处理前趋势检验
We study difference-in-differences (DID) estimation of average treatment effects on the treated when the researcher is uncertain about which pre-treatment periods satisfy the parallel trends assumption. Roth (2022) shows that pre-trend testing can induce bias, complementing the statistical literature on post-selection inference. We propose the model averaged difference-in-differences (MADID) estimator, a weighted average of the candidate $2\times2$ DID estimators. The…
二元结果混合对照试验的稳健估计与推断:非小细胞肺癌案例
Hybrid controlled trials (HCTs), which augment randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external controls (ECs), are increasingly receiving attention as a way to address limited power, slow accrual, and ethical concerns in clinical research. However, borrowing from ECs raises critical statistical challenges in estimation and inference, especially for binary outcomes where hidden bias is harder to detect and estimands such as risk difference, risk ratio, and odds ratio are of…