Non-Vacuous Certification of Transport MCMC via Oscillation-Controlled Normalizing Flows
基于振荡控制归一化流的传输MCMC非空验证AI 解读 ↓
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基于振荡控制归一化流的传输MCMC非空验证AI 解读 ↓
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Transport MCMC trains a normalizing flow to precondition Metropolis--Hastings proposals, achieving high empirical efficiency on challenging posteriors; yet no prior work produces a numerically non-vacuous, rigorous spectral-gap bound for such samplers. We establish the first such bounds. For independence MH on the banana family we certify (γ^\ast = 0.828) at (D = 2) (covering in the original space) and (γ^\ast \ge 7.6\times 10^{-4}) at (D = 5) (covering in an analytically unwarped Gaussian space with a grid-certified gradient bound under the stated numerical Lipschitz certification), both rigorous at 95% confidence. The framework rests on three pillars: (i) spectral normalization with reduced scale clips constrains the flow Lipschitz constant from (10^{47}) to (10^4); (ii) a coverage-based empirical oscillation bound replaces the vacuous analytical bound with a data-dependent certificate; and (iii) oscillation-regularised training cuts the empirical oscillation by 60--90% at no cost to density fit, extending practical certificates through (D = 20) ((γ^\ast \ge 1.7\times 10^{-4})). Tests on four further targets (Gaussian mixture, shear-building, Neal's funnel, Bayesian logistic regression) identify three precise barriers: boundary curvature, target stiffness, and tail-coverage mismatch. An affine-vs-spline comparison shows that simpler architectures yield tighter certificates at identical NLL, inverting the usual expressiveness hierarchy.
见树亦见林:BART 的高斯过程极限
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have shown state-of-the-art performance in both prediction and causal inference problems. Previous theoretical work has attempted to explain BART's superior performance by establishing posterior contraction rates for standard BART models, but these rates depend strongly on the number of covariates. Here, we take a different approach and study the behavior of BART as the number of trees grows towards infinity. We show that in this…
空间相关函数数据的小波贝叶斯层级模型与正则化马蹄先验
Environmental monitoring networks increasingly record pollutant levels as curves observed over time at fixed stations. Yet, exposure and risk assessment often require predicting these curves, with their uncertainty, at unmonitored locations. Conventional smooth-basis methods for such spatially correlated functional data, including spline-based kriging, tend to over-smooth acute, high-frequency episodes such as pollution peaks. We propose a parsimonious wavelet-based Bayesian…
一般平滑模型中选择平滑参数的结构化割线方法
General smooth models replace parameters of a regular likelihood with additive models. The models can include parametric terms, Gaussian random effects, and smooth functions of covariates. The latter are parameterized via a reduced-rank spline basis and regularized via weighted quadratic penalties placed on the basis coefficients. Estimates for these weights (i.e., smoothing parameters) can be obtained by optimizing the Laplace-approximate Bayesian marginal likelihood.…
谱密度矩阵的多元贝叶斯 P 样条估计及 LISA TDI 噪声应用
We present a Bayesian P-spline method for estimating the frequency-dependent cross-spectral density matrix of stationary multivariate time series. The inverse spectral matrix is parametrised through its frequency-varying Cholesky decomposition, which guarantees Hermitian positive definiteness at every frequency. Each real log-diagonal entry and each real and imaginary off-diagonal entry is given an independent penalised B-spline prior that controls smoothness. Inference uses…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
函数形式灵活建模中协变量测量误差的校正方法:一项盲法、受控的中立比较模拟研究
Covariate measurement error is pervasive in epidemiological research and distorts estimated exposure-outcome associations, yet correction methods have been studied almost exclusively under linear modelling assumptions. Their behaviour when the underlying association is non-linear and is itself estimated with flexible regression, remains poorly characterised. We report a blinded, multi-stage neutral comparison simulation study, conducted within the STRATOS initiative,…