Fixed Effects and the Generalized Mundlak Estimator
固定效应与广义 Mundlak 估计量AI 解读 ↓
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固定效应与广义 Mundlak 估计量AI 解读 ↓
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We develop a new approach for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies with unobserved group-level heterogeneity. We consider a general model with group-level unconfoundedness and provide conditions under which aggregate balancing statistics -- group-level averages of functions of treatments and covariates -- are sufficient to eliminate differences between groups. Building on these results, we reinterpret commonly used linear fixed-effect regression estimators by writing them in the Mundlak form as linear regression estimators without fixed effects but including group averages. We use this representation to develop Generalized Mundlak Estimators (GMEs) that capture group differences through group averages of (functions of) the unit-level variables and adjust for these group differences in flexible and robust ways in the spirit of the modern causal literature.
结局非随机缺失下的双重差分设计
This paper addresses one of the most prevalent problems encountered by political scientists working with difference-in-differences (DID) design: missingness in panel data. A common practice for handling missing data, known as complete case analysis, is to drop cases with any missing values over time. A more principled approach involves using nonparametric bounds on causal effects or applying inverse probability weighting based on baseline covariates. Yet, these methods are…
伪面板事件研究:可信应用的计量经济学基础
Event studies with panel data are widely used to estimate treatment effects. With repeated cross-sections, future treatment dates are unobserved for untreated individuals. Pseudo-panel event studies impute pre-treatment outcomes of the treated using matched untreated individuals. This paper establishes identification in such designs and characterizes bias when identification conditions fail. I show that the pseudo-panel regression is equivalent to weighted least squares with…
平均处理效应局部化:合成控制中的投影方法
Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this article, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…
自删失模型下信息性缺失的纵向因果推断
Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal…
匹配三重差分:协变量调整框架
A common empirical strategy in triple-differences (DDD) is to include either covariate trends or covariate levels to a three-way fixed effects (3WFE) regression. This strategy is typically motivated by the conditional parallel gaps assumption which assumes that deviations from parallel trends are similar among units with comparable observed covariates. We formally study both 3WFE specifications and show that, in general, neither consistently estimates the average treatment…
The bootstrap is widely used to construct confidence intervals but may perform poorly for some estimators. We consider semiparametric estimators that use cross-validation to estimate nuisance pa- rameters and can be computationally expensive in large datasets. We illustrate potential problems with bootstrapping with replacement when cross-validation is used and extend the cheap bootstrap confidence interval to subsampling without replacement for asymptotically linear…