AN INTRODUCTION TO SOME NON-PARAMETRIC GENERALIZATIONS OF ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AND MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
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It is clear that a p-variate body of data arranged in a q-way classification will formally look llke a (p+q)-dimensional contingency table, but a distinction can be made between a ‘variate’ and a ‘way of classification’ in that along the direction of a ‘variate’ the marginal frequencies are supposed to be stochastic variates while along a ‘way of classification’ the marginal frequencies are supposed to be fixed. When, along certain directions, the marginals are fixed, an approach based on a conditional probability argument has been used. In the present paper (i) the conditional probability approach is abandoned and we start either from a single multinomial distribution or a product of an appropriate number of different multinomial distributions according as, with multi-way frequency data, all ways are ‘variates’ or some are ‘variates’ and some are ‘ways of classification’. (ii) Also the hypotheses that are posed are of different kinds altogether according as we have a ‘multivariate analysis’ situation or an ‘analysis of variance’ situation. The hypotheses that are meaningful for one situation would not be too meaningful for the other and vice versa. Since the conditional probability approach is altogether abandoned, the mathematical theorems to which appeal is made are the two theorems as stated and proved by Cramér (1946, chapter 30) and a number of other such theorems which have been proved the same way and which, between them, take care of all the hypotheses discussed in this paper. When all ways are ‘variates’ the hypotheses are analogous to those in the usual multivariate analysis, and when some ways are ‘variates’ and some are ‘ways of classification’ the hypotheses are analogous to those in the analysis of variance. The general methods discussed in this paper arose out of an attempt to analyse a large mass of categorical data. The analysis has been carried out, and a few typical cases (together with the numerical analysis) illustrating different parts of the theoretical development will be presented in a subsequent paper. In this paper only the large-sample tests are considered. How ‘large’the sample size has to be for the validity of the use of these asymptotic techniques, or in other words, some results on the nature of the approximation involved will also be discussed in a later paper.
We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
Motivation: Mediation analysis is an important tool for elucidating causal mechanisms in biomedical research and has recently gained increasing attention in microbiome studies. Motivated by a microbiome study of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients, we investigate whether the effect of induction chemotherapy intensity on infection status is mediated through gut microbial taxa. This problem poses substantial methodological challenges due to the high dimensionality, zero…
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
PICPIs:预测区间条件预测区间
A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal prediction in nonparametric uncertainty quantification, standard marginal validity offers limited resolution at the prediction values on which decisions are based, and fully conditional guarantees with respect to the covariates are provably unattainable. We address this gap by introducing a prediction-based conditioning framework…