Two Papers on Applications of Stochastic Processes to Road Traffic Problems: Delays on a Two-Lane Road
随机过程在道路交通中的应用：双车道道路的延误AI 解读 ↓
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随机过程在道路交通中的应用：双车道道路的延误
- 研究问题
- 在车辆随机间距、最低安全间隔及特定超车规则下，较快车辆的长期平均速度怎样随交通流量和加速能力变化？
- 方法与思路
- 作者设定简化的双向交通随机模型，推导长期平均速度公式，并对双向与单向道路的模型常数进行计算和变化分析。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，模型存在低于理论道路容量的流量阈值，超过后快车无法保持速度优势；数值分析还讨论加速能力与超车间隔的影响。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对随机车距、车群及超车规则的设定，平均等待时间发散的条件，以及参数取值和速度结论对现实交通的适用性。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据 Crossref 摘要；结论来自简化交通模型与选定参数计算，摘要未提供现实验证，不能直接转化为驾驶或安全建议。
原文摘要
SUMMARY A theoretical formula is found for the average speed achieved over a long journey by a vehicle travelling along a road according to certain rules governing overtaking, when the other traffic on the road is postulated to be of a particularly simple kind. Except for the vehicle whose behaviour is studied, vehicles in each direction travel at the same speed, and are spaced at random, but with a certain minimum distance between vehicles. The vehicle being studied wishes to travel faster than the other vehicles; when it overtakes, it must pass the whole of a bunch of vehicles at minimum spacing in a single manoeuvre. It overtakes without delay if there is a sufficient gap in the opposing traffic. If delay occurs, then a greater gap in the opposing traffic is required, to allow for time lost in accelerating. An alternative application of the theory is to one half of a dual carriageway, in which the two traffic lanes are occupied by vehicles travelling at two different speeds. A curious feature of the results is that when the traffic flows increase beyond a certain level, appreciably below the theoretical capacity of the road, the fast vehicle cannot maintain a higher average speed than that of the other vehicles: the whole time is spent waiting for opportunities to overtake, and the average wait per overtaking becomes infinite. Numerical values of the average speed have been tabulated using an electronic computer. Standard values of all the constants of the model were selected for two-way and one-way roads separately, and these constants were then varied two, three or four at a time. Two general conclusions are indicated by the numerical results. Firstly, more acceleration, obtained at the expense of reduced maximum speed (and perhaps greater fuel consumption) by lowering the top gear ratio, would probably provide increased mean journey speeds for most modern cars under typical traffic conditions. Secondly, the cutting of safety margins and clearances when overtaking would not normally provide any worthwhile increase in mean journey speed.