Online inference under over-parameterized models with hidden confounders
存在隐藏混杂时过参数化模型的在线推断AI 解读 ↓
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存在隐藏混杂时过参数化模型的在线推断AI 解读 ↓
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Abstract In this paper, we study online estimation and inference of regression coefficients in the presence of hidden confounders by leveraging over-parameterized models. Unlike existing offline approaches that rely on factor and sparse models, our closed-form estimator simultaneously removes hidden-confounder bias and is directly applicable to streaming data. Using tools from random matrix theory, we analyse phase transition phenomena in the variance of the coefficient estimator that arise as the sample size transitions from being smaller than to larger than the number of predictors. Notably, we show that adding more covariates only slightly affects the estimator’s variance, mitigating concerns about variance inflation in over-parameterized settings. We validate the effectiveness of our method for both individual coefficient inference and multiple testing through simulations and applications to two real datasets.
基于残差化 Walsh–Hadamard 得分的异质析因效应修饰因子去偏与同时推断
In factorial randomized experiments with $K$ binary treatment components, we study which baseline covariates modify component main effects and interactions. We define effect-modifier cells $(j,S)$, $j\in[p]$ and $\emptyset\neq S\subseteq[K]$, through the coefficients $θ^\ast_{jS}$ of population linear projections of conditional Walsh--Hadamard contrasts $τ_{S}$ onto standardized covariates. Using baseline-robust direct scores, we develop frequentist inference for all $p(2^K-1)$…
基于正交机器学习的非参数异质性因果中介分析
Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of an intervention on an outcome into a direct pathway and an indirect pathway transmitted through a mediator, but standard methods typically summarize these pathways using population average effects. In many applications, however, the indirect effect may vary substantially across individual profiles. We propose an orthogonal statistical learning framework for estimating heterogeneous causal mediation effects conditional…
半参数推断的 V 折刀切法:方差、置信区间与同时置信带
For decades, the bootstrap has been a default tool for statistical inference because of its broad applicability and minimal analytic requirements. Although its validity is well understood for smooth parametric estimators, its theoretical properties for many modern semiparametric and machine-learning estimators remain largely unstudied. Nevertheless, bootstrap procedures are often used routinely in such settings, even when their validity is unknown and their computational…
主分层下异质性处理效应的双重交叉拟合去偏机器学习
Principal stratification provides a foundational framework for causal inference with intermediate outcomes by defining causal effects within subpopulations, yet existing work has largely focused on average effects across strata rather than treatment effect heterogeneity within strata. Such within-stratum heterogeneity informs individualized treatment decisions but the associated methods are sparse. We address this gap by studying the identification and estimation of the…
函数型结局因果效应的半参数推断
Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a cornerstone of causal inference, yet extending it to functional outcomes is not a routine scalar generalization; rather, it entails three fundamental challenges in identification, inference, and observation. This paper develops a comprehensive semiparametric inference framework for functional DiD with discretely observed data. First, we define the functional average treatment effect under parallel trends and derive its efficient influence…
rd2d:边界断点设计中的因果推断软件
Boundary Discontinuity (BD) designs are used in empirical research to learn about causal treatment effects along a continuous assignment boundary defined by a bivariate score. These designs are also known as multi-score regression discontinuity (RD) designs, and include geographic RD designs as a prominent example. This article introduces \pkg{rd2d}, a statistical software package for \proglang{R}, \proglang{Python}, and \proglang{Stata} that implements local polynomial…