Valid Bayesian Inference based on Variance Weighted Projection for High-Dimensional Logistic Regression with Binary Covariates
基于方差加权投影的高维二元协变量 Logistic 回归有效贝叶斯推断AI 解读 ↓
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基于方差加权投影的高维二元协变量 Logistic 回归有效贝叶斯推断AI 解读 ↓
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We address the challenge of conducting inference for a categorical treatment effect related to a binary outcome variable while taking into account high-dimensional baseline covariates. The conventional technique used to establish orthogonality for the treatment effect from nuisance variables in continuous cases is inapplicable in the context of binary treatment. To overcome this obstacle, an orthogonal score tailored specifically to this scenario is formulated which is based on a variance-weighted projection. Additionally, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed to facilitate valid inference for the desired low-dimensional parameter within the complex framework of high-dimensional logistic regression. We provide uniform convergence results, affirming the validity of credible intervals derived from the posterior distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through comprehensive simulation studies and real data analysis.
贝叶斯神经网络辅助多处理混合治愈生存模型:儿科肿瘤应用
Estimating covariate-conditional treatment effects in multi-arm oncology studies is complicated when treatment arms have common distributional features and a non-negligible fraction of patients achieve long-term remission. We propose a joint mixture cure model with covariate-dependent mixtures of log-normal kernels with treatment-specific inclusions. Both linear and neural-network-assisted non-linear covariate links are proposed. Specifically, the susceptible survival…
图分割贝叶斯因果森林:空间异质性处理效应估计
In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across space and subpopulations due to both measured and unmeasured spatially structured confounders. Accounting for spatial dependence while estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is a central task in spatial causal inference. Causal Bayesian additive regression tree methods are popular nonparametric methods for modeling…
BGM-IV:面向高维协变量工具变量回归的贝叶斯生成建模
Instrumental-variable (IV) regression enables causal estimation under endogeneity, but modern IV problems often involve nonlinear structural effects and high-dimensional covariates. Existing methods typically operate in observed or generic learned feature spaces, and they often yield point estimates without uncertainty quantification. We introduce BGM-IV, a Bayesian generative modeling approach that performs nonlinear IV regression through posterior inference in a causally…
析因多变量贝叶斯因果森林:多处理的异质主效应与交互效应
Many studies expose units to several binary treatments at once and record several correlated outcomes, yet analysts usually estimate one treatment's average effect on one outcome at a time -- discarding how treatments interact and how their effects vary across units. We introduce the factorial multivariate Bayesian causal forest, a Bayesian nonparametric model that decomposes the factorial response surface over the treatment lattice into a prognostic sum-of-trees plus one…
基于贝叶斯机器学习的决策论亚组发现
We consider the problem of identifying promising subpopulations in terms of treatment effectiveness or treatment effect heterogeneity, from a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective. We first show that a straight-forward application of Bayesian decision theory to subgroup detection leads to a counter-intuitive risk-seeking (RS) behavior. Motivated by this observation, we introduce the Bayesian Risk-Aware Inference and Detection of Subgroups (BRAIDS) utility and use it to…
面向政策选择的实验设计
We show how to optimally design experiments when the resulting data will be used to choose a welfare-maximizing policy subject to constraints. A decision maker seeks to maximize Bayes expected welfare by choosing a policy whose effects depend on an unknown finite-dimensional parameter. The decision maker has access to a first wave of experimental data with a fixed design but may choose the design of a second wave that will be collected before choosing the policy. The…