Consistency of invariance-based randomization tests
基于不变性的随机化检验的一致性AI 解读 ↓
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基于不变性的随机化检验的一致性AI 解读 ↓
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Invariance-based randomization tests—such as permutation tests, rotation tests, or sign changes—are an important and widely used class of statistical methods. They allow drawing inferences under weak assumptions on the data distribution. Most work focuses on their type I error control properties, while their consistency properties are much less understood. We develop a general framework to study the consistency of invariance-based randomization tests, assuming the data is drawn from a signal-plus-noise model. We allow the transforms (e.g., permutations or rotations) to be general compact topological groups, such as rotation groups, acting by linear group representations. We study test statistics with a generalized subadditivity property. We apply our framework to a number of fundamental and highly important problems in statistics, including sparse vector detection, testing for low-rank matrices in noise, sparse detection in linear regression, and two-sample testing. Comparing with minimax lower bounds we develop, we find perhaps surprisingly that in some cases, randomization tests detect signals at the minimax optimal rate.
In this paper, we develop bootstrap methods for factor-augmented regressions with potentially weak common components, allowing signal eigenvalues to diverge at heterogeneous rates $N^{α_k}$, where $0<α_k\leq1$, $k=1,\ldots,r$. The regression estimator targets a rotation of the latent parameter vector that may be data dependent, while factor estimation can induce asymptotic bias. The proposed procedure directly constructs the rotation-specific target in the bootstrap world,…
Normality pre-tests on reduced-form innovations cannot detect whether two or more underlying structural shocks are Gaussian, and hence cannot detect a failure of identification in non-Gaussian SVARs. We propose a bootstrap-based approach that reveals such a failure. Under the null of valid identification and certain regularity conditions, the conditional bootstrap distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the impact matrix is asymptotically normal, so the…
Governments and development partners often seek Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) "accelerators" whose progress can propagate gains across human well-being, institutions, resources, and environmental priorities. Such claims require evidence on direction, timing, robustness, and trade-offs, not only network connectivity. We map directed SDG interdependence using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. Because the goal series are persistent,…
Motivation: Mediation analysis is an important tool for elucidating causal mechanisms in biomedical research and has recently gained increasing attention in microbiome studies. Motivated by a microbiome study of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients, we investigate whether the effect of induction chemotherapy intensity on infection status is mediated through gut microbial taxa. This problem poses substantial methodological challenges due to the high dimensionality, zero…
I study randomization inference for dynamic causal effects in panels with many units and few periods when treatment is endogenous and an instrument is as good as randomly assigned only through the innovations of a first-order autoregressive assignment mechanism with unknown persistence. The persistence is a nuisance parameter in two senses: it determines which weighted average of heterogeneous causal effects the instrumented local projection estimand measures, and it governs…
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…