Bayesian Image Mediation Analysis
贝叶斯图像中介分析AI 解读 ↓
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贝叶斯图像中介分析AI 解读 ↓
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Mediation analysis aims to separate the indirect effect through mediators from the direct effect of the exposure on the outcome. It is challenging to perform mediation analysis with neuroimaging data which involves high dimensionality, complex spatial correlations, sparse activation patterns and relatively low signal-to-noise ratio. To address these issues, we develop a new spatially varying coefficient structural equation model for Bayesian Image Mediation Analysis (BIMA). We define spatially varying mediation effects within the potential outcomes framework, employing a soft-thresholded Gaussian process prior for functional parameters. We establish posterior consistency for spatially varying mediation effects along with selection consistency on important regions that contribute to the mediation effects. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm scalable to analysis of large-scale imaging data. Through extensive simulations, we show that BIMA can improve the estimation accuracy and computational efficiency for high-dimensional mediation analysis over existing methods. We apply BIMA to analyze behavioral and fMRI data in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study with a focus on inferring the mediation effects of the parental education level on the children’s general cognitive ability that are mediated through the working memory brain activity.
当处理发生溢出:时空因果效应估计的神经网络框架
Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
贝叶斯神经网络辅助多处理混合治愈生存模型:儿科肿瘤应用
Estimating covariate-conditional treatment effects in multi-arm oncology studies is complicated when treatment arms have common distributional features and a non-negligible fraction of patients achieve long-term remission. We propose a joint mixture cure model with covariate-dependent mixtures of log-normal kernels with treatment-specific inclusions. Both linear and neural-network-assisted non-linear covariate links are proposed. Specifically, the susceptible survival…
图分割贝叶斯因果森林:空间异质性处理效应估计
In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across space and subpopulations due to both measured and unmeasured spatially structured confounders. Accounting for spatial dependence while estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is a central task in spatial causal inference. Causal Bayesian additive regression tree methods are popular nonparametric methods for modeling…
采用局部—全局收缩的非正态变换有向无环图半参数贝叶斯结构学习
Bayesian structure learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is central to high-dimensional causal discovery, yet existing methods mostly assume multivariate Gaussian data, which is routinely violated by measurements displaying heavy tails, skewness, or bounded support. We address this by introducing NPN-DAG-HS, a fully Bayesian semiparametric DAG model coupling the nonparanormal family with horseshoe shrinkage on Cholesky off-diagonals via an extended-rank likelihood. This…
比例高维下尺度混合误差的贝叶斯DAG结构学习与收缩协方差估计
We propose a unified Bayesian framework namely robust DAG-Cholesky horseshoe (R-DACH) for joint directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure learning and precision matrix estimation in the high-dimensional proportional asymptotic regime $p/n \to c \in (0,\infty)$, under the scale mixture of normal errors. The construction places a global-local horseshoe-type prior directly on the strictly lower-triangular entries of the modified Cholesky factor of the DAG-Markov precision matrix,…
时间序列政策决策中的计量方法与因果结构学习:英国新冠政策证据
Causal machine learning (ML) recovers graphical structures that inform us about potential cause-and-effect relationships. Most progress has focused on cross-sectional data with no explicit time order, whereas recovering causal structures from time series data remains the subject of ongoing research in causal ML. In addition to traditional causal ML, this study assesses econometric methods that some argue can recover causal structures from time series data. The use of these…