Sample-Based Classification Procedures Derived from Density Estimators
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Parametric or nonparametric density estimators from a mixture of K distributions can be used to estimate the non-error rate of an arbitrary classification rule—and to construct a rule which maximizes estimated probability of correct classification. (For two multivariate normal distributions with common covariance matrix, this general criterion yields the usual linear discriminant.) Such a sample-based rule is asymptotically optimal under very general conditions. Often its “apparent” non-error rate exceeds its true rate and is even optimistically biased as an estimator of the (unknown) optimal rule's non-error rate; but the apparent rate converges to this optimum.
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Event studies with panel data are widely used to estimate treatment effects. With repeated cross-sections, future treatment dates are unobserved for untreated individuals. Pseudo-panel event studies impute pre-treatment outcomes of the treated using matched untreated individuals. This paper establishes identification in such designs and characterizes bias when identification conditions fail. I show that the pseudo-panel regression is equivalent to weighted least squares with…
当处理发生溢出:时空因果效应估计的神经网络框架
Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
ARMA 过程谱密度函数的分解
Quasi-periodic oscillations are characterized by fitting Lorentzian functions to a nonparametric estimate of the power spectral density, a two-step procedure that separates estimation from modeling and does not accommodate measurement error. We develop a parametric alternative based on autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) processes observed with measurement error. We derive an exact decomposition of the ARMA spectral density into real-valued components, one for each class of…