By-Product Data and Forecasting in Unemployment Insurance
失业保险运行附带数据及其预测用途AI 解读 ↓
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失业保险运行附带数据及其预测用途
- 研究问题
- 失业保险行政运行自动产生的统计资料，能够怎样支持经济活动变化、商业周期与预测相关研究？
- 方法与思路
- 作者介绍各州机构运行中收集的数据，突出其城市和县覆盖、细分行业信息，以及周度和月度统计频率。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要指出这些行政资料具有研究经济周期和变量联系的潜力，并强调部分州公开资料受行政用途限制。
- 阅读关注点
- 核对历史数据的覆盖口径、时间可比性及公开范围，并查明正文是否提出具体预测方法或仅讨论资料用途。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据 OpenAlex 索引摘要，稿件版本未注明；材料描述历史制度背景，未给出预测模型或效果，不能外推至当前数据。
原文摘要
The unemployment insurance program has been operating in this country since the beginning of 1938. There have been many growing pains during these first eleven years. The operating problems involved in setting up this vast program have left little time thus far for careful consideration of the statistical data that are automatically produced in the course of its operations. These data, now and in the future, can be a fruitful source of information on changes in economic activities. The comprehensive nature of these data, covering every city and county, giving information by detailed sub-industry, and yielding statistics for each week and month, makes it possible to test various theories of the business cycle, and may, as a result of careful analysis, reveal interrelationships among economic variables that are now unsuspected. The data described in this paper are collected by all the state unemployment insurance agencies as part of their operations. However, some states publish only the statistics which are needed for administrative and operating purposes. Undoubtedly, more would be published if the existence of these valuable materials became generally known.