Controlling the Reinforcement in Bayesian Non-Parametric Mixture Models
贝叶斯非参数混合模型中强化机制的控制AI 解读 ↓
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Summary The paper deals with the problem of determining the number of components in a mixture model. We take a Bayesian non-parametric approach and adopt a hierarchical model with a suitable non-parametric prior for the latent structure. A commonly used model for such a problem is the mixture of Dirichlet process model. Here, we replace the Dirichlet process with a more general non-parametric prior obtained from a generalized gamma process. The basic feature of this model is that it yields a partition structure for the latent variables which is of Gibbs type. This relates to the well-known (exchangeable) product partition models. If compared with the usual mixture of Dirichlet process model the advantage of the generalization that we are examining relies on the availability of an additional parameter σ belonging to the interval (0,1): it is shown that such a parameter greatly influences the clustering behaviour of the model. A value of σ that is close to 1 generates a large number of clusters, most of which are of small size. Then, a reinforcement mechanism which is driven by σ acts on the mass allocation by penalizing clusters of small size and favouring those few groups containing a large number of elements. These features turn out to be very useful in the context of mixture modelling. Since it is difficult to specify a priori the reinforcement rate, it is reasonable to specify a prior for σ. Hence, the strength of the reinforcement mechanism is controlled by the data.
贝叶斯算子学习:高斯先验下后验存在性与点估计收敛
We develop a Bayesian framework for learning nonlinear operators between infinite-dimensional spaces. Given a map $g_0:\mathcal{X}\to\mathcal{Y}$ between separable Hilbert spaces, we study the recovery of $g_0$ from $n\in\mathbb{N}$ noisy input-output pairs $(\boldsymbol{X},\boldsymbol{Z})=(X_i,Z_i)_{i=1}^n$ with $Z_i= g_0 (X_i ) + E_i$. Here the $X_i\in\mathcal{X}$ are randomly drawn 'design' points in a compact subset of $\mathcal X$, and the $E_i$ are assumed to be i.i.d.…
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正则化似然反卷积与后验密度重构
Density deconvolution is an ill-posed inverse problem because recovering the latent density amplifies high-frequency variation in the observed data. We propose a two-stage likelihood procedure. The first estimator maximizes the convolution likelihood over a regularized Gaussian-mixture sieve; the second treats this fit as an empirical prior and averages the fitted conditional latent densities. Under fixed-model misspecification, the estimators generally have different…
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We develop a Dynamic Spatial Panel Bayesian Additive Regression Trees model with Horseshoe shrinkage (DSP-BART-HS) for high-dimensional spatio-temporal panel data. We jointly evaluate the model against a comprehensive suite of structural spatial econometrics, non-parametric machine learning methods, and small-area estimators across nine data-generating scenarios spanning 200 replicates each, including irregular spatial topologies, dense policy effects, and non-linear…
见树亦见林:BART 的高斯过程极限
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have shown state-of-the-art performance in both prediction and causal inference problems. Previous theoretical work has attempted to explain BART's superior performance by establishing posterior contraction rates for standard BART models, but these rates depend strongly on the number of covariates. Here, we take a different approach and study the behavior of BART as the number of trees grows towards infinity. We show that in this…
空间相关函数数据的小波贝叶斯层级模型与正则化马蹄先验
Environmental monitoring networks increasingly record pollutant levels as curves observed over time at fixed stations. Yet, exposure and risk assessment often require predicting these curves, with their uncertainty, at unmonitored locations. Conventional smooth-basis methods for such spatially correlated functional data, including spline-based kriging, tend to over-smooth acute, high-frequency episodes such as pollution peaks. We propose a parsimonious wavelet-based Bayesian…