Estimating the number of component processes of a superimposed process
叠加过程的组成过程数量估计AI 解读 ↓
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We consider a superposition of an unknown number of independent homogeneous Poisson processes with unknown rates and suppose that when an event occurs, the component process in which it occurred can be identified. The number of component processes and their rates are to be estimated by observing the system for some time. In the general case, it is difficult to estimate all of the parameters but we derive the best unbiased estimators of some parametric functions. Inferences for the special case where all the rates are equal are discussed in detail.
Background: Generalized Odds (Gen Odds) provide summaries for ordinal outcomes without requiring the proportional odds assumption. However, conventional Gen Odds compares independently drawn treatment and control outcomes and targets a population-level contrast rather than an individual-level contrast. We developed an individual-level causal formulation of Gen Odds and examined its identification. Methods: We defined the Causal Gen Odds using the joint distribution of…
We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
近端估计与推断
Abstract We develop a convex-analytic framework for constructing and analyzing a broad class of penalized estimators. Our method defines penalized estimators by applying proximal operators to benchmark estimators, rather than by penalizing the benchmark criterion itself. We establish general finite-sample properties, derive unified asymptotic distribution results, and provide tractable conditions for oracle selection and oracle asymptotic efficiency. We then apply the…
Motivation: Mediation analysis is an important tool for elucidating causal mechanisms in biomedical research and has recently gained increasing attention in microbiome studies. Motivated by a microbiome study of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients, we investigate whether the effect of induction chemotherapy intensity on infection status is mediated through gut microbial taxa. This problem poses substantial methodological challenges due to the high dimensionality, zero…
观测因果推断中不完全识别下的相对偏差
To conduct causal inference in observational settings, researchers must rely on certain identifying assumptions. In practice, these assumptions are unlikely to hold exactly. This paper considers the bias of selection-on-observables, instrumental variables, and proximal inference estimates under violations of their identifying assumptions. We develop bias expressions for IV and proximal inference that show how violations of their respective assumptions are amplified by any…