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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要围绕政策处理效应的群体异质性及多重检验展开,直接对应因果推断。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Soohyung Lee
Azeem M. Shaikh

多重检验与异质性处理效应:重新评估 PROGRESA 对入学率的影响

研究问题
项目效果随可观测特征变化时,如何判断哪些子群体受到影响,并控制同时检验多个子群体造成的错误拒绝风险?
方法与思路
作者将子群体效果识别转化为一组假设检验,以性别和最高已完成年级划分群体,构造控制家族错误率的检验程序。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称程序在弱假设下有限样本控制家族错误率;PROGRESA 仍影响入学率,但显著子群体比未校正多重检验时少得多。
阅读关注点
核对所谓弱假设的具体内容、子群体划分和检验构造,并比较校正前后的拒绝结果、检验功效与政策解释。
阅读边界
仅据所给 Crossref 摘要,无法确定具体识别条件、显著子群体名单及效果大小;未显著也不能直接解释为没有效果。

原文摘要

SUMMARY The effect of a program or treatment may vary according to observed characteristics. In such a setting, it may not only be of interest to determine whether the program or treatment has an effect on some sub‐population defined by these observed characteristics, but also to determine for which sub‐populations, if any, there is an effect. This paper treats this problem as a multiple testing problem in which each null hypothesis in the family of null hypotheses specifies whether the program has an effect on the outcome of interest for a particular sub‐population. We develop our methodology in the context of PROGRESA, a large‐scale poverty‐reduction program in Mexico. In our application, the outcome of interest is the school enrollment rate and the sub‐populations are defined by gender and highest grade completed. Under weak assumptions, the testing procedure we construct controls the familywise error rate—the probability of even one false rejection—in finite samples. Similar to earlier studies, we find that the program has a significant effect on the school enrollment rate, but only for a much smaller number of sub‐populations when compared to results that do not adjust for multiple testing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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