A comparison of treatment effects estimators using a structural model of AMI treatment choices and severity of illness information from hospital charts
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利用心肌梗死治疗选择结构模型与病历信息比较处理效应估计量AI 解读 ↓
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We compare the performance of various matching estimators using a novel approach that is feasible in the absence of experimental data. We estimate a structural model of hospital choices and catheterization for Medicare heart attack victims using hospital chart data on patient heterogeneity. With the estimated structural parameters, we simulate data for which the treatment effect is known. We find that as measures of individual heterogeneity are added to the controls, matching estimators perform well. However, the estimators do a poor job recovering the true treatment effect when measures of individual heterogeneity are unavailable. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
农业政策干预的规模化效应
Policies to raise agricultural productivity have been central in the fight against global poverty. Their impacts are often measured in experiments that provide strong causal identification but may be too small-scale to capture general equilibrium effects that arise when policies are scaled up. We develop a quantitative model of agricultural trade, featuring a granular economic geography, that combines parameters estimated from small-scale experiments with rich administrative…
对 Suri (2011)《技术采纳中的选择与比较优势》的评论
This paper illustrates and addresses weak identification in the correlated random coefficient (CRC) model that Suri (2011) uses to study agricultural technology adoption. Using the publicly available dataset, which differs slightly from the version used in Suri (2011), we obtain different point estimates for the paper’s main CRC model. To understand why these differences are as large as they are, we recast the CRC model as a more general random coefficient model in which the…
警力资源的有效部署:来自印度随机酒驾严打的理论与新证据
Should police activity be narrowly focused and high force, or widely dispersed but of moderate intensity? Critics of intense “hotspot” policing argue it primarily displaces, not reduces, crime. But if learning about enforcement takes time, the police may take advantage of that period to intervene intensively in the most productive location. We propose a multi-armed bandit model of criminal learning and structurally estimate its parameters using data from a randomized…
BGM-IV:面向高维协变量工具变量回归的贝叶斯生成建模
Instrumental-variable (IV) regression enables causal estimation under endogeneity, but modern IV problems often involve nonlinear structural effects and high-dimensional covariates. Existing methods typically operate in observed or generic learned feature spaces, and they often yield point estimates without uncertainty quantification. We introduce BGM-IV, a Bayesian generative modeling approach that performs nonlinear IV regression through posterior inference in a causally…
使用预训练嵌入处理非结构化数据的计量经济学
Unstructured data, such as images and text, are increasingly used in empirical economics. Since training machine-learning models on unstructured data is costly, economists often use off-the-shelf pre-trained deep learning models developed by computer scientists to extract embeddings, which are then used as covariates in target economic analyses. Despite the popularity of this practice, its theoretical foundations remain limited. There are two main difficulties. First,…
未观测混杂下二元结果的双向因果推断
Bidirectional causal relationships arising from mutual interactions between variables are commonly observed within biomedical, econometrical, and social science contexts. When such relationships are further complicated by unobserved factors, identifying causal effects in both directions becomes especially challenging. For continuous variables, methods that utilize two instrumental variables from both directions have been proposed to explore bidirectional causal effects…