Optimal Sequential Screening Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Factors Measured with Error
含测量误差的定量风险因素最优序贯筛查准则AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要中的风险指疾病风险，研究对象是公共卫生筛查，不能据此归入金融尾部与系统性风险。
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含测量误差的定量风险因素最优序贯筛查准则
- 研究问题
- 风险因素随时间波动或测量不准确时，如何利用重复测量决定停止筛查、实施干预或继续测量，并控制总体筛查资源？
- 方法与思路
- 作者在干预群体规模和平均测量次数约束下，构造最大化干预群体期望风险的序贯准则，并给出血压筛查示例。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，提供按群体公共卫生目标定义的最优序贯筛查指南，以中年男性舒张压和心血管疾病风险展示应用。
- 阅读关注点
- 核对风险与测量误差模型、三个决策区域的计算，以及群体规模和测量成本约束如何决定最优准则与阈值。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据 OpenAlex 索引摘要，稿件版本未注明，无法判断刊本变化；最优性依赖所述目标及约束，摘要未说明模型条件或实际干预效果。
原文摘要
Any screening program based on a quantitative risk factor has the objective of identifying individuals at high risk of disease. When the risk factor varies within individuals over time or is subject to measurement error, repeat measurements should aid risk assessment. This article presents statistical guidelines for sequential screening based on measurements accumulated over time. The aim for each subject is to decide whether (a) risk is sufficiently low that screening can be stopped, or (b) risk is sufficiently high that intervention is indicated, or (c) further measurements should be obtained to improve risk assessment. The guidelines presented are optimal in a population, public health sense; that is, they are designed to give the maximal expected risk in the group identified for intervention, subject to constraints on that group's size and on the cost of screening (defined in terms of the average number of measurements per person required). An example concerning screening for cardiovascular disease in middle-aged men using diastolic blood pressure measurements is presented.