Approximate independence of permutation mixtures
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We prove bounds on statistical distances between high-dimensional exchangeable mixture distributions (which we call permutation mixtures) and their i.i.d. counterparts. Our results are based on a novel method for controlling χ2 divergences between exchangeable mixtures, which is tighter than the existing methods of moments or cumulants. At a technical level, a key innovation in our proofs is a new Maclaurin-type inequality for elementary symmetric polynomials of variables that sum to zero and an upper bound on permanents of doubly-stochastic positive semidefinite matrices. We obtain as a corollary a new de Finetti-style theorem (in the language of Diaconis and Freedman, 1987) as well as several new statistical results, including a differential privacy guarantee for the “shuffled privacy model” with Gaussian noise and improved generic consistency guarantees for empirical Bayes procedures in compound decision problems.
多元Lévy自适应B样条回归
We propose Multivariate Lévy Adaptive B-Spline Regression (MLABS), a Bayesian nonparametric regression model designed to capture nonlinear effects, interactions, and locally varying features of multivariate functions. MLABS represents the regression function as a random sum of low-order tensor-product B-spline basis functions under a finite Lévy random measure prior. The resulting representation adapts to the complexity and local structure of the regression function while…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian ensemble model used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees, interpreted as weak learners. In this work, we propose a generalization of the BART model that has two main features: first, it automatically selects the number of decision trees using the given data; second, the model allows clusters of…
凸正则化的谱依赖:右旋转不变设计下的基本极限
We study the fundamental limits of convex-regularized estimation in high-dimensional linear regression with right-rotationally invariant design matrices. We show that the asymptotic risks of convex-penalized least squares estimators are lower bounded by the risk of an approximate message passing algorithm known as Bayes VAMP, and we further characterize when the lower bound is attainable. As a technical ingredient in the proof of our lower bound theorem, we characterize the…
基于相容性的贝叶斯推断:渐近极限、变分原理与 Wasserstein 几何
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) replaces intractable likelihood evaluations with comparisons between observed and simulated data. We develop a measure-theoretic formulation of discrepancy-based Bayesian inference in which compatibility is encoded through nonnegative weights. For vanishing thresholds, we establish convergence of the corresponding posterior distributions in total variation. In the large-sample regime, we identify conditions under which the posterior…
公平变量选择
Algorithms are increasingly being used to help automate and improve data-driven decisions, but care must be taken to prevent such algorithms from learning discriminatory patterns from historical data and perpetuating their biases. Statistical notions of fairness aim to mitigate either a model's disparate impact on disadvantaged groups (thus ensuring group fairness) or the resulting disparate treatment of individuals with similar features (thus ensuring individual fairness).…